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Comments (273)
1st in curiosity: What shall we do Boss?
Read the Report!
LoL. Read it!!
This one is for watching and listening actually.
listening
Numero tres 🥉
Thanks Gary… if I had any hair left, I’d be pulling it out after reading all of the last 2 days comments !! Bless your heart lad!
Analysis starts at 8:38
If the volatility is too much, just refer to Gary’s earlier advice to sit on your hands for a while!
Thanks, Gary. I look forward to learning from you. I know you’re a judo guy, ever tried jiujitsu? Your judo would go a long way.
Lots of gems in this one. I didn’t know that 95% of the time the initial break from a coil is a false break and comes back with a more durable move in the oppositive direction.
Psychologically, the coil breakdown result makes sense to me. Price tightens up over a few days with fewer folks willing to sell for higher or lower prices. Finally, the sellers take charge and the price plummets. Everyone with weak hands sells until the buyers take over and drive price higher, wiping out the weak hands and replacing with strong hands with much higher price targets.
75%
Thank you, sir.
💯, I roll, Gary would definitely excel in the human chess match. On top of the analytical genius I’m guessing his grips would be nearly impossible to break 😂👊🏼
YES
I always understand why you go and climb rocks, really. Your patience is pretty amazing, Gary. You’ve helped me immensly this past year. Thanks a ton.
Gary,
Now that you think DXY will possibly break down through 100, how low do you suspect it might go before May 7?
You did think that approaching 100 would be the time to sell, what’s your new estimate?
DXY now at 99.821 and bouncing.
Thanks for the report Gary. Exactly the analysis I was hoping.
For everyone that is new to the site. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do yourself a favor and read through the terminology section and read through a couple months of posts so you understand what Gary is saying and don’t as questions that are answered in the post already.
If you are unwilling to do the homework then you really don’t want to make money and should go find someone else to lead you like a sheep.
I’m working on a chrome plugin you can use to hide comments from users you don’t want to see comments from OR only show comments from certain users (ie Gary and/or DG) by adding them to an allow or block list. Will let y’all know once Google has approved it 🤙🏼
That’s interesting mikr, see/follow and hide would be useful web forum-type functionality.
Wow very much needed …. Pls tell us
Thank you! You the best
A twist on cultism, only hearing the things you like! Good. Mature.
I believe its called filtering out “noise”. Very smart mikr
It would be great if you could add functions such as auto refresh every few minutes and automatic jump to the bottom… then we can only see the subs we like and act on their recommended trades much faster
So we are buying outs in the SPY? Jk
No, isn’t it clear we’re buying 2x 10oz gold bar and 1x 10oz silver bar (again 😂)?
Not gonna lie, hearing silver being called “dead money” hurts the silver soul. If gold is running for a month, I am thinking silver could make it back to the recent highs around 35, even if it’s lagging and like dragging a dead horse.
Was going to ask if silver has a similar coil in the same time frame as gold, but I’m not seeing it.
Silver miners doing good tho…. maybe same analysis as gold
As a long term follower I remember you said big breakouts happen when people least expect it. Gold patterns seem very good, considering slv sentiment very broken, may cartel turn this into covering opportunity? (Normally pms move together, while gold going 3500, what may silver do?)
Is china buying up all the Gold since they know the tarriffs are going to put them in a bad spot
All the Central Banks are buying gold and also trying to repatriate what they own. Russia Central Bank also announced buying silver. Interestingly, Chinese insurance companies are also allowed to own 1% of their assets as gold.
My understanding is that it is currently a pilot program only for Chinese insurance companies. Assuming this is correct, we haven’t begun to see the demand once the program is extended to all insurance companies.
Vince Lanci likened it to when insurance companies in the US were first allowed to participate in the stock market. That new source of liquidity was huge for stocks going forward.
The potential impact of the Chinese program on gold is not small.
As far as I know, Chinese companies can now also purchase silver as a reserve. I think as soon as the think tank comes out with its ideas about refinancing the approximately nine trillion, if I remember correctly, there will be a market explosion. And with gold-backed and Bitcoin Treasuries, there will be another run on American securities, because it obviously represents a new dimension of government financing. That’s just an idea. And then, of course, American companies could also consider investing in crypto or precious metals. In that respect, it’s only a matter of time before silver explodes, too. IMHO
Thanks Gary!!
To all the pshycopaths emailing Gary with trading questions. WTH is wrong with you? The lack of self awarness is mind blowing
Just insane. Its a line i would never cross.
Psychopaths is a bit much. Nervous Nellie’s who need their hand held sure. Let’s not get carried away
Look at the dollar crater, below 100 already.
Yep. As of now, low tonight 99.6558. The low on 7/18/2023 was 99.5515.
I hope Gary will give us a new revised DXY price where we may sell, since his 100 price (target) got shattered.
Why not just wait until he says “Ok that’s enough”?
Like, you sound really nervous for only 1 call. Unless you have more in the trade than suggested.
If it’s causing you anxiety, maybe take profits. I didn’t take the GLD trade, but those of you who did are laughing rn.
Great video Gary, totally appreciate your patience, hopefully the careless questions will subside. ICL question for you,, if the scenario you covered in the video plays out,, the dollar rolls over and Gold makes it to the $3500 ish zone,,, what are your high level thoughts for the ICL low for gold? If it makes $3500,, do think your earlier estimate of a pullback to $2800ish will still be in play?
Dlatsha, The USD just plunged below 100 and Gold futures have moved up above $3200. Cash Gold at $3210. SPX futures down 62.
Gold is like 50 + percent above the 200W MA. we will have a severe ICL eventually.
The first target is a 38% Fib retracement. If that doesn’t hold then 50%.
That’s the move from Feb 28 to the top (whatever that proves to be)?
Also interested in what would be the starting day
Thanks Gary
Gold rally is just breath taking at this point. Glad I grabbed a 2nd call today.
Gary, the bid ask was out of control, I tried limiting but it was impossible, I am gonna have to use market price, or should I wait for a pullback, any thoughts, thanks
You start in the middle of the spread and inch your way up until you get filled.
I kept putting in the ask price but it failed to fill on me over and over. Got it done in the end but it was rising fast. The software wasn’t keeping up
Spreads were huge today…. I wonder what the spreads are like when you sell into a parabolic move higher?
oh yea baby….balls to the wall gold (and GDX)! Just like I’ve been trying to say all day in the comments ….people really need to start listening to me!
…bro good trading to you, but I’m hoping for the script.
haha good one (it was there tho …. and some pictures too )
If you people can’t understand english I don’t know how I’m going to be able to help you.
Haven’t heard that phrase in years. (balls to the wall).
During the financial crisis when the Fed first announced QE, no one knew what they were talking about and the market didn’t budge. Then the fillowing day in a set up interview with hedge fund manager David Tepper explained what it meant to him and said he was “going balls to wall” on national media….market went freaken’ nuts w/in minutes. THey should make a movie out of it (wouldn;t be a very long one tho)
Is there any chance silver and miners printed ICL on 7th April? Or not.
Here we go again , another night with futures down 500 or so . This is getting to be a regular thing .
Maybe we can be down 1000 on the futures by the morning . Geese .
The dollar just broke below 100. It will probably hold for a day or two but this has now become a failed intermediate and working on a failed 3 year cycle.
Bond yields 🙈
Made some really good money on my physical the last month or so. Percentage wise I have more gold than silver. Silver has been a dud so far but if this thing evolves like Gary suggests we might finally get a quick and fast move sometime before FOMC. It’s just like silver to come late to the party.
Gary, totally support you. You don’t need to answer anything outside of your report.
Looking at Wall Street Journal money flow page recommended here: https://www.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/terminology/
There were 12 stocks making new highs on NYSE and 31 on Nasdaq.
They were mostly gold stocks.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/newfiftytwoweekhighsandlows?mod=md_usstk_view_hilo_full
More evidence we should be in gold.
These markets remind me of 2008. Markets and commodities all drop in the beginning, then gold takes off up while the other markets zig zagged down for a few more months .
Gold volatility charts tell me we are in “bubble” of volatility.
Volatility targets 3300-3800 for the current trend, volatility middle is around 3450-3500 (top?).
XAUG 4hr.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kBdfIBuo/
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0a6N7j0Y/
Holy crap gold is on fire. At this rate we will be at $3600 in a week.
Good evening Gary from London. Thanks for the video. FYI there’s a gentleman I follow on LinkedIn by the name of Robert Gottlieb who is/was a precious metals analyst. He just posted the cup and handle chart on hold. So I replied to it and in doing so mentioned you and SMT. Hope that’s ok with you and if not please let me know and I’ll take it down.
Cheers
Don
I entered the gld call trade, but very small, no where near even a half percent. I’m up around 12 %. I’m considering doubling my stake. Seems like its not too late to double my stake, but I’ll probably just be happy with my current allotment. Its not really a big deal! I will re-access in the AM!
Where’s your balls? All in!
Ha ha! I am waiting onthe ICL for that.
SPX futures are rapidly moving up . They are now positive and 100 points off of the bottom from 2 hours ago. We may have a SM rally tomorrow.
feldman2920
ur previous targets for SPX to 56-57, before a steeper drop to around 50
jive with what I see. My question is, alternate volatility possibilities if 5850 is breached. I’m just testing my work on price volatility. TY
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6HHEEis4/
In an earlier post 2Infinity mentioned that Chinese insurance companies are permitted to hold 1% of their assets in gold. I do not remember the source but I read or heard recently that the Chinese government is considering raising that to 5%. To my knowledge no decision has been made as of this time.
I am surprised that nobody mentioned about Slammy Friday.
Silver makes up 70% (of my 95% holdings) of physical.
I really do hope it plays catchup
62.2.1
Gary says:
April 10, 2025 at 1:45 pm
It’s another topic I’m going to discuss tonight.
Long term sub, no disrespect, just what I see. Reminds me of this song.
You’re sitting there yakkin’ right in my face
I guess I’m gonna have to put you in your place
Y’know if silence was golden
You couldn’t raise a dime
Because your mind is on vacation and your mouth is
Working overtime
You’re quoting figures, you’re dropping names
You’re telling stories about the dames
You’re always laughin’ when things ain’t funny
You try to sound like you’re big money
If talk was criminal, you’d lead a life of crime
Because your mind is on vacation and your mouth is
Working overtime
You know that life is short and talk is cheap
Don’t be making promises that you can’t keep
If you don’t like the song I’m singing, just grin and
Bear it
All I can say is if the shoe fits wear it
If you must keep talking please try to make it rhyme
‘Cause your mind is on vacation and your mouth is working
Overtime.
Van Morrison
Interesting scenario we are in. It’s funny how gold bounced off oversold while silver embedded. Possibly, as you said, gold will be the only thing going up. I assume when gold finally does top, it will drag silver even further down with it. I can only imagine where silver will finally bottom. But maybe that might be the final buying opportunity.
Just a thought – the original plan was everything would go down until the end of April or start of May. Now gold is doing its own thing and might be out of sync. If the scenario comes about that gold tops at the same time stocks bottom, would you be willing to trade the SM in the meantime, or would you prefer to stay sidelined to not mess with anything not PMs?
I’ve been a subscriber here for five years gary, and I’ve been waiting for this day, the entire time, a strong convincing breakout in miners and now it’s come. Hallelujah.
Unfortunately, My subscription is about to end, I started a farm. I started planning five years ago for this, giving everything I had and working one day at a time. Positioning myself so that even with inflation and depression I can feed myself and at least make a living, selling chickens, ducks, quails, mushrooms, and recently hemp.
Can’t afford a yearly subscription at this time but here’s to the future. I’ve got a meager miner position I’ve been holding for 5 years and a nice little stack of silver, one oz gold.
Thanks for the time gary, I’ll be back as soon as I can. I’ve learned a lot about cycles and I’d like to come back and learn some more in the future. For the most part hearing you forecast the market has kept me dedicated and focused on my goals and thats been worth the price.
Cheers
Redwolf
And here’s cheers to my homies in PMG. You have a 4chan following if you didn’t know gary. Some real OG’S in there. Known em for years.
Good luck to you.
Good luck Redwolf!
Fat little indica!
That little miner position gonna pay big time in the next intermediate cycle. RDU a safe small cap with gigantic upside. Best of Luck Redwolf.
Gold just went deep sea fishing.
As long as the SMT stays open for new subs, newbie questions will be asked. It’s as simple as that.
Of course one should do one’s homework and read the reports and all that. Fair point.
But anyone being sick of newbie questions, just ask Gary to close the SMT. Or just don’t bother about it.
I’m leaving the yearly link open till the end of April for those people that miss the deadline to convert but do want to convert.
+1
…..and stop being so freaken grumpy all the time and taking every little thing so seriously …. hopefully you didn’t raise kids with that attitude being so rigid, contemptuous and mean-spirited. Gary isn’t like that why do you think you have to be that way for him.
Honestly some of the people that ask dumb questions or seem not get it….honestly my read is some of them cognitively challenge in which case these people need our help rather than looking for every excuse to blow them to smithereens.
I mean if you’re behind a little old lady in traffic and she hesitates when the light turns green are one of those that leans on the horn and goes absolutely ape-shit? If so I’m afraid karma going to be a bitch for you… not to mention the toll of chronic stress taking on your body being constantly pissed all the time….
Agreed. SMT is Gary is very emotional ~ good thing he climbs to get it out.
Yea if you notice Gary wasn’t speaking out against newbie people doing newbie things, but bad manners is another thing (hitting his e-mail up with personal concerns is the epitome of bad manners). Hard to excuse bad manners and lack of common sense in understanding personal boundries……
Agree about the karma. However, a lot of it is plain ol’ laziness, that is not excusable.
I see this pennant in silver leading to ~24 dollars when broken down.
this is the bigger picture of it – target would be exactly the apex of the big triangle
In gold I am pretty confident that the Rally will be over after break of the yellow uptrend channel as we have already touched the bigger intermediate channel tonight.
already broke thru …..3246 @ 6:01am
So, I’d like to say, I think Gary’s site is great.
Even though I still have problems and I’m probably “even” worse than mediocre. But I was a craftsman, after all, and the development of the new “Soviet Union” in Europe has forced me to completely reinvent myself. And Gary’s advice is simply better than the stock market services I still use in Germany. It’s just difficult when you’re moving into a completely new field, because you can only understand it through cross-connections!
And even I notice that many comments are so unnecessary because people simply don’t read Gary’s post. I say that as an old German who sometimes has real trouble understanding your posts here! IMHO and GLTYA
Aloha from Madeira Tom
Congrats to GLD trade holders. Looks like a winner!
The FOMO in me want to buy GLD and GDX shares instead of sitting in cash and holding the 2% call GLD call option. MUST RESIST FOMO TEMPTATION!
My hope is that silver gets rejected at 31.5 and falls below the last low. This should at least offer us good entry opportunities in silver
Honestly, I found it easy to miss the recent GLD entry, which I still don’t know when it occurred. I read the reports as soon as I can (I’m at work all day)
The GLD trade was yesterday morning.
Not sure I want to re-open this pandora’s box/complicate things but is it bullish that BTC has held 50 WMA for 7 wks and just recaptured 10DMA? This is what AI said:
“When a stock holds above its 50-week moving average (WMA) for an extended period, like seven weeks, it often signals strong intermediate-term support. Recapturing the 10-day moving average (DMA) after a pullback could indicate renewed short-term momentum. Together, these factors might suggest a bullish trend, especially if accompanied by increasing volume or other positive technical indicators”
If people is afraid gold a little too hot right now, mightn’t they capture BTC at its nascent phase?
Bond prices (TLT) finally up in the pre-market yields going down. If you ask me very, very bullish. Was talking to my son is an assoc. in muni finance at a leading firm in NYC said last week at the height of the “fear” yields up 100bps deals were being postponed, essentially liquidity shut down. Very, very bearish.
If this is starting to unwind and things getting back to normal if you ask me, again, very, very bullish and you’re witnessing unfolding in real time.
Course I don’t have the benefit of having trading through numerous crashes, like some here, however, but was trading through the finanncial crisis in ’09 (and still literally working down the loss carry-forward incurred from that time frame when I continued to stay short when the Fed had announced QE. When the bus suddenly leaves the station when the all clear is given you do NOT want to caught left standing at the station).
A general question: Would somebody wants to elaborate on the consequences of failed cycles?
Thanks!
Tom
Failed daily cycle will set the stage for an ICL. Failed intermediate cycle will set the stage for a YCL.
Thanks. I always learn here!
Hang on, you said “gold too far extended from the moving average, wait til gold gets oversold on the weekly timescale before entry”… didn’t you?…. please clarify
when did he say that …. a while ago. I think doesn’t he always say he reseerves the right to change on a dime if conditions change?
I’m not chasing that
exactly:
1. still early in the DC
2. Didn’t he say 3,500 is the target? That’s 10% away.
2. price is just beginning to get over-bought and not even embedded yet (which is what it does in a bull-market)
3. you may not have a choice if you want in. You can wait till this impulse move exhausts and then pulls back , but then that means you missed the impulse move.
Like Gary says we got physical to do that, there’s no way I’m leveraging into it though👍
mmm ,yea gotcha, makes sense for you ….no physical here
whitey, there’s 2 different trades at the moment.
“Sitting in cash waiting” – which is watching the weekly gold chart for sentiment to drop to oversold.
“1 or 2 GLD calls” – which is the current trade to catch what is left of the move for gold.
So if you’re following Gary, 99% would be cash, 1% would be in GLD, more or less. Yes, gold is moving extremely far from the 200 ma. This report is talking about the 1% trade and how it might play out over the next month.
It’s all in the report, just listen again.
Not the subject of this forum but I took a position in grains earlier this week, they look bullish. I’m not much in cash
USD weekly cycle looks to me to be nearing its ICL. TSI is diverging, Williams is over-sold. Setting up for a turn, methinks. Your weekend report and some deep looks at metals & miners & dollar charts will get a lot of thought this weekend.
The dollar’s move down from 107+ seems to be an A-B-C, with C about equal to A near today’s low.
TJ24, You might want to read up on Elliott Wave a little. The decline in the dollar looks like an impulsive 5 waves down to me.
Even if it was an ABC. C waves have extensions all the time.
Common extensions for the C Wave are:
C = 1.38 x A
C = 1.62 x A
or is some extreme cases
C = 2 x A
Why would the dollar bottom way before the FOMC?
Gary,
You just gotta ignore the dumb people. They are everywhere in life. Ultimately, you have to protect yourself. For the benefit of the not dumb people in the SMT group.
These ‘dumb people’ are paying customers of Gary’s service. He’s not running a charity; he’s being paid for his work.
If it frustrates you that some customers are asking questions, consider following your own advice to ‘ignore’ them, as Gary appears to be doing. Notice how he selectively responds to certain posts.
I’m not trying to single you out, but there are just as many posts urging Gary to switch to an annual plan or to ignore questions as there are people asking simple ones.
Please keep this in mind. Otherwise, we risk fostering an unwelcoming community, which could harm the experience for everyone and ultimately impact Gary’s business
At this stage of Gary’s career it’s not about quantity, it’s quality.
What does quality look like to him? Low maintenance, follows instructions, high comprehension.
General questions can be asked from the community.
Sorry but that “unwelcoming community” that you may call it is more or less what Gary wants at this stage of the game: a group of focused experienced traders who know the long term game plan of this metal cycle, and who aren’t asking how a call option works or what tickers to trade in india
Case in point. Another 4 posts contributing to the noise instead of just ignoring it. Just focus on the trade. You don’t need to speak on behalf of Gary.
amen. it’s not that high of an expectation… just read or listen to what Gary says. and if you’re not sure then read/listen again. and if you’re still not sure, do it again. 99% of the time it is clear if people put in a little effort vs asking a question that is clearly already answered in the post. JFC
it’s not an ‘annoyance’ when Gary and others react to this. courtesy works both ways – the subscriber who doesn’t put any effort into taking a little time to figure out what is being recommended is immensely more discourteous than Gary and other subscribers who cry foul when people aren’t bothering to put in any effort on their end.
I’m not advocating buying Chinese stocks right now , but the trade war has decimated many Chinese stocks , and they seem to be bottoming and starting to recover . When the trade war ends they could pop . Worth the look are BIDU , BABA , FXI , YINN .
Agree, watching baba and will reload if it goes sub $100
Very sound way to capture the rest of the potential IC advance without pressing too hard too late in the cycle
Gary do you think there is a chance for Silver to reverse now with monthly bullish engulfing and breakout towards $50?…worried that recent developments opening narrative for possibility of US default could be game changer. Thank you!!
I doubt it would get to $50 but it might get to $40.
Gary – should we add SLV calls to the GLD calls then?
PPI numbers low, s/b good for Gold. Gold fut up $68.80 to $3246
Thanks for the video and reminders to be judicious about our own trades. Cash and patience for silver sound like a plan to me. Have a good weekend everyone!
Those GLD calls are already up 20% from yesterday and looks like another 20% move at open.
Gdx set to open on a big gap up, that seldom works out well.
Gary said in vid target is 55 …..price at 48 rn
Still way to go. I am getting nervous, though, as I am in the green for a suspiciously long time.
Update: 49 and counting.
Interesting article…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-record-recession-anxiety-225702680.html
Does anyone have an opinion on GLD leaps? I have some not authorized by Gary that I bought one day when they were on sale for Jan and June, at different strikes and most are in the money, some as much as $30 deep now.
I’m worried that the deeper in the money they get, the spread will get real wide, and maybe I’d be better to sell them on a spike and reload with small qtys of each at higher strikes?
Any opinions? I haven’t done too much LEAP options trading before.
Spreads should depend more on open interest than how deep in the money (or not) they are….
Thanks, yes, I spread them out on even $5 and $10 strike increments which had the highest OI. I had problems before selling ones with smaller OI, especially the ones way deep ITM. Trying to learn from my prior mistakes.
Gary said there would be better entry points in a month or two
It’s the same as when you buy. Offer somewhere in the middle of the spread and then inch down until you get filled.
I will just keep them and sell them when it’s time to sell put an offer in the middle of the spread and you’ll get filled or just adjust it afterwards
Ok, thanks. I’ll divide the qty to keep it smaller on each, too. I’ll try to sell them on a strong day near an ICH.
The 2Yr / 10 Yr spread is still well above 50, is doesn’t seem to be just a blip.
10 year UST as of this morning has breached the high on 4/9 which some think triggered the tariff pause. Bond vigilantes coming out?
It is getting very close to the danger zone of 4.80%
dying to hit buy on GDX just can’t bring myself to pay +5.75%
Ok well already pulling back to +5.00%
will wait
Same
Was banking on slammy odds today… May break that cycle up
Same! Waiting patiently 😉
decided to close out big gain on GLD calls (62%) ….will re- buy next week hopefully better level maybe even SLV…feels like FOMO right now
Bought some SOXS at 25.35 when SMH tagged the declining 10 DMA from below. Easy tight stop.
Great call so far. Thank you DG 🙂
Bear with me here, I know gary didn’t address this, but given epic move in gld, and looking at open interest, and premium, is a 290 strike suicide or just dum?
thanks you guys? not in call at all yet. watching pb this morn.
290 is $7 in the money.
That should be ok. Although if you are just now buying you should go deeper.
Muchas gracias amigo!
Is anyone getting into miners no leverage right now or waiting until ICL?
I have a very small unleveraged position .. just a FOMO management thing at this point… I think we are having a blow off top …
FOMO is my problem too but last time market psychology turned around and kicked me in the nuts
It’s gonna be ugly when it turns.. IMHO
I bought some unleveraged GDX… but only to sell covered calls on them. The premiums are fantastic as everyone seems to be piling in this rocket ship to the moon…. And I am happy enough to make money selling them those tickets. (Too late in the daily cycle to use leverage)
On the GDX daily, RSI just hit over bought not even embedded yet, MACD is just crossed and Gary’s got a target of 45 which is 5pts away. Based upon where we are now in these momentum indicators it looks like we’re maybe half way through gains more or less before these indicators get maxed out. Tis matches up with Gary’s target at 55.
I can show you the chart but I posted it yesterday.
For the record, bought 1 GLD call Jun 20 , 297 1.313, small position for fun, review the video again before purchase and happy with the risk reward trade, thanks Gary. GLTA
Full moon tomorrow . Those sometimes occur in proximity to short term SM bottoms and gold market peaks . Just sayin …….
Thanks Gary. GLD call got me another year of the SMT😉👍
I wasn’t on it fast enough only got in today. Hope it’s still early enough.
Bonds, USD and stocks all down.
That should not be possible. What is going on with entire usd centric system?
Should we get spooky?
Complacency bias. What worked in the past won’t necessarily work in the future. US bonds are no longer viewed as a safe haven asset like they were in 2008. Too much US debt, too much weaponization of the dollar (think Swift system, Russia, sanctions, and now the tariff war with China), and no signs of any of that changing.
Took profits on my 1 GLD call. $600 in 2 days isn’t bad at all. I know we haven’t gotten the sell signal yet but I’d rather lock in $600 profit than risk a $1200 loss if this goes against us. Nothing goes vertical forever.
Fully agree.
“Day 3 breakout looks very convincing to me “ per Gary.
Silver futures prices are still below spot, I am still playing my AGQs for the short-term.
IMHO, when silver futures prices get back above spot could catch up and rally going into this DC.
Congrats on GLD and miners for all.
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
The gold/silver ratio is currently forming a weekly key reversal, which tells me, if it follows through, that silver will rise substantialy more than gold during this IC advance. GTTA
weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Btca4fo/
39 min.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gSmI6rKB/
Here comes that final blow off in silver. Hurra!
Finally, Silver and SIL are finally moving, along with Gold and GDX. My stable of miners are behaving nicely. NAK and SITKF back in their uptrend. USD continues its collapse. The disarray in Washington is causing problems. Germany clamoring for the return of its Custodial Gold. I see no sign of the widely touted audit of Ft. Knox and analysis of encumberences and lease records. Is this Kabuki theater, or perhaps the Debt Endgame? Stay tuned.
+100, that is my assumption also!
GTTA,
Hon
Do you think this is a new intermediate cycle, or the one that started in December?
I don’t know,
But if silver is taking off finally it’s probably end of the IC
I was thinking the same. Silver is the last to get the memo, as usual.
Yep, +1!
This is where silver can explode at the ending of this ICs.
Remember my 15%+ move in the final weeks of this ICs if where silvers tops before heading into our ICL.
Timing is possibly /perfectly lining up for a final pop in silver and rollover into our ICLs around mid-May.
Disclosure: have 40%+ of ports. in AGQs buying or adding the dips this week.
Will possibly trim or take profits on some heading into the weekend. Please do your own D/D/ and R/R.
Edit/ update silver futures just now broke above spot as mentioned/ posted above. just now. post#78
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
Hon
Are you in AGQ or is it not the time for it? Thanks
Aloha arshavir,
As mentioned above I am building/ adding on dips this week up to 40% of ports.
I will most likely sell half before the close or at the highs today.
I am going to use my 4/5 rule to add on early morning PBs if we get them.
It is ok to have a partial if you can get a PB on AGQs below $38. IMHO.
Good trading and good luck to you and all,
Hon
Silver really taking off today . Perhaps it will initially keep going when gold corrects / or consolidates .
$50k AGQ bought on the silver spot breakout above $32
20 day ma for silver futures is right at $33
Potentially phenomenal weekly close incoming.
Q1 closed with gold above $3,100 and silver above $31.
This week we could close above $3,200 and $32.
DXY in process of forming hammer , still half trading day left, but if it does, could very well be the start of DXY ICL. As Gary suggested, keep trades low at 1% of trading port.
Silver may have gotten sucked into the general selloff and faked a ICL drop? Silver moving this hard must mean the top is closer than we thought, and then both metals will go into their true ICL soon.
Booked a really nice profit in 2 GLD calls from yesterday. I just don’t want to be in them when momentum turns. Will redeploy funds to AGQ with a stop. Also my account hit a really nice dollar milestone today. Thank you, Gary 🙏
Gary,
In your most recent X post you said something like silver is now setting up for a $40 target by May 7th.
Did I get that right?
And, does today qualify as an “out of the blue day “?
I’ve got FOMO brain right now, haha.
Does anyone have an opinion on the backwardation in Silver.
Spot $32.10
May Futures $31.992
DXY below July lows … how low will USD go and high will metals respond ?
There is a bound in the dollar as expected from this mornings spike down. It is however how PM’s and the miners seemed to be unphased.
FOMO is a funny thing. There is ALWAYS another opportunity coming. Everyone missed the enormous recent rally in tin (I am making that up) and no one cares. The goal is never to lose a big chunk of assets. As Baruch said, I made my fortune by always selling too early.”
Preserve your assets until the right opportunity comes up. As Gary (and Honmag and I) have said, there will be many ICL’s in metals coming. Just be sure to have capital and psychic reserves left to load up at those.
Oh yeah…and “go SOXS”…
The mood on X is becoming euphoric, which is almost unbelievable consider the huge losses on Monday and Tuesday of this week ! No shortage of Fomo.
+1 , I was on Xwitter and thinking we have to be pretty damn close to an ICH based on sentiment
+1000 for that quote
+1, and you are priceless!
Yup, and short-term/ day traders like us love the volatility.
P.S. I will most likely sell half or a good portion of AGQs before the close or highs of the day.
Good trading and good luck to you and all,
Hon
Watching my physical catch the move, and day trading the volatility = happiness 🙂
I thought you were supposed to be busy suppressing miners?
hon,
Why sell your AGQ’s today?
Aloha BAIRES,
I will sell only partial or half of my AGQs, have been accumulating on dips this week and 40% of ports. is too greedy. (My 40% of ports. is a lot, reminder my all-in on core baskets at ICLs is only (50%-75% of ports.)
If I get my 4/5 rule PBs early next week will add back as a day trade or maybe buy my trio (AGQ, NUGT, JNUG,).
We are still late in an IC and even if I do believe the last 2 weeks will have that 15%+ rally in silver I am not going all-in on that assumption.
Got to control greed, you know what they say about greedy pigs.
I want as much of my capital saved or accumulated to be able to go all-in on our ICLs around mid-May.
If not or wrong, I have a ton of physical to catch any more upside.
Good trading and good luck to you and all,
Hon
Anyone holding any Jan.16,25 calls yet. I held 10 $28.00 Calls after selling most on run up last month. Back up to 31% as of today almost up to pay for another 2 years of SM . Will we get back to $35.00 on Silver next week!
Took my profits in GLD and rolled my profit and premium into SLV calls, but bought out to the end of September for a little more cushion. If GLD still has room to run then SLV has probably has greater % catching up to do.
Are there any folks on this site that are knowledgeable about the bond market. I keep reading that the treasuries market is having troubles. A couple of articles and post on X talked about some really bad stuff happening in the treasury market Monday night which forced the decision on the tariffs. But to be honest I am not smart enough when it comes to treasuries to know how true that is.
The one thing I can see from my comparisons of 2008, 2020, & 2025 crash events is that the dollar is behaving completely differently than they normally due in a crisis. Normally we would see a fairly large spike up in the dollar as it is a safe haven. This time has been completely different with the dollar just continuing down which I think is the reason gold and the miners did not see the same level of decline as was seen during the last four 4YCL’s.
AFAIK its the ‘basis trade’ that is causing problems where hedge funds are highly leveraged hoping to make bank off small movements between bonds & futures.
Here’s what ChatGPT said me to about it
The U.S. 10-year Treasury market is currently experiencing significant turmoil, largely due to the unwinding of the “basis trade” strategy employed by hedge funds. This strategy involves exploiting price differences between Treasury bonds and their corresponding futures contracts. While typically low-risk, the basis trade becomes precarious when executed with high leverage—often up to 100 times the initial investment—making it vulnerable to rapid market shifts.
Recent events, particularly President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, have triggered a sharp sell-off in Treasuries. This led to a spike in the 10-year yield from below 4% to over 4.5% within days, marking the steepest weekly increase in over a decade
As bond prices fell, hedge funds faced margin calls, forcing them to liquidate positions and further exacerbating the market decline
The scale of these leveraged positions is substantial, with estimates suggesting that basis trades account for up to $1 trillion in exposure
This has raised systemic concerns, as the rapid unwinding of these trades can strain market liquidity and amplify volatility. The situation is reminiscent of the 2020 “dash-for-cash” crisis, where similar dynamics led to severe market disruptions
In response to these developments, there are growing calls for regulatory intervention to mitigate the risks associated with highly leveraged trading strategies. The Federal Reserve may consider measures to stabilize the market, such as targeted asset purchases or liquidity support, to prevent further destabilization.
Screenshots ripped from TF Metals report who has obviously taken from a Bloomberg terminal (oh theyve gone up in the wrong order)
I have a feeling that the shorts in bonds gonna get burned badly…..
Thanks Escaladetrades, Sounds similar to the unwinding of the Yen carry trade last year but much larger.
Let me guess we will have yet another government bailout for an overleveraged trade gone wrong by the big banks and hedge funds.
Makes sense that gold and the miners are rocketing in anticipation of the Fed coming to the rescue soon which is leading me to think we may top before the May 7th fed meeting on some kind of fed announcement.
You’re most welcome.
Thanks for your valuable contributions to the site, i always find good information in your posts.
Believe this video addresses this.
thank you for the video. housekeeping request: any chance you can categorize all trades under a ‘trade’ title? you’ve done it in the past, so it doesn’t get mixed in with the analysis. I missed this last one and wouldn’t want to miss the bigger one coming up. if you’d consider it, greatly appreciate it. thanks.
A reasonable idea Gary.
Whenever there is something actionable that your recommend, rather than a “where we are” post, perhaps just precede it with “ACTION” or “TRADE”.
That way it’s hard to miss.
Having said that, I read ever post, so not for me.
I agree. Active trades should have its own link. Ticker symbol, type of trade, entry levels, potential pit falls for entry and exit. This would be very beneficial and it would cut out 90% of the bullshit repetitive questions
Wow. The volatility is amazing. I had a very nice profit in SOXS and got out breakeven after that rally in it faded.
Sorry, was rooting against you. I’ve got SM calls. Probably another 50 SPX points more until I’m nervous. Very possible that this market falls again when we hit the 5400 area (perhaps just shy of that).
I will probably be selling as we approach that area, or if I see lower lows/lower highs developing on the minute chart. Then sit back and watch for switch back to puts entry again.
SM running now. Trump appears to be backing down on China.
The administration wasn’t fully thinking through the effects of tariffs. Another reason that critical thinking “Trumps” common sense when it comes to economic policy (and most other policy, for that matter).
You mean like with the Border?
Aloha Gally,
I am sorry for replying to your comment but saying it as a friend.
Do you notice you do not get many replies or comments on your financial/ trade posting, unless it has a political statement in it on our trading post.
Have heard you say many times here “Just do what Gary says”, but yet you are not able to have an open mind to actually do what Gary says about his political views and research other unbiased opinions/ media outlets.
And the only way to get any response/ attention or replies is to post political statements on our financial platform.
Just saying, but I would appreciate it if we kept political views on our political board. (This is why Gary has a political board!)
Good trading and good luck to you and all.
Mahalo,
Hon
Took a couple percent loss on soxs, it was fast drop 🙂
I look more at dollar risk than percent loss. I decide how many $ I am willing to lose.
SOXS popped right after I posted, I believe (might have moved by the time you saw it, though. SMH caved fast.). When itI get a good rally I put in a break even stop. I like heads I win tails I lose nothing.
I got it around 26.5 exit 25.5 but I had a small position 😀
Prepare for more “trade war” concessions https://x.com/kiantrades/status/1910703120453427468
Gally please take your comments to the political side.
100%
You mean the critical thinking piece? Sure. That was def uncalled for those who disagree… honestly thought it was apparent, guess not.
I agree with political board
critical thinking is not allowed when it is viewed as critical to a certain ‘stable genius’, even when said genius has roiled the markets and then done a quick 180 in response. that’s not allowed
180 on what
ummm tariffs?
70+ countries now want to deal, he responded encouragingly to them. That’s how negotiations work.
He’s also, from the looks of it, trying to get a large international block of partners on the same page to strategically isolate and pressure China.
We’re looking at something that geopolitically hasn’t been attempted before since post WW2. I am willling to wait to see how it unfolds.
I don’t think we have a choice but to wait to see how it unfolds.
I just don’t have the optimism that this will work out. The goals are indeed laudable. The execution scares me and doesn’t seem thought out. I can’t describe it as appearing anything other than impulsive and driven by gut feeling. It’s too driven by emotion. I would want it to be more rooted in empiricism and with a well defined and well understood plan. I just don’t see evidence that that is the case. It surely appears to be reactive, Wednesday being a prime example, which frankly scares the shit out of me.
Critical thinking would include objectively looking at results compared to the previous WH occupant instead of reflexively whining.
no defense of the previous administration. they were incompetent also.
I don’t evaluate based on political affiliation, I evaluate on absolute individual performance.
Pertinent to what we do here, it’s going to take a while to completely revamp the international trade status quo which has been very unfavorable to the USA and middle class. Focusing on the daily wiggles in the news makes no more sense than doing same for markets as opposed to the longer trend.
The jury is going to be out for a while with tariffs, along with clarity for all the markets.
agree the jury is out. but I’m not optimistic this ends well.
meantime the volatility has given an opportunity in the market, so I’ve just been trying to play that. I do care about the wiggles in the personal financial sense in my brokerage account.
the bigger concern is that it’s not just sending shock waves into the SM it’s the larger consequences into well just about everything.
Do you really think there is any way to end 50 years of terrible policy without pain?
I never said that. I am saying that I am not confident in the administration’s ability to pull this off.
There is a jury called “treasuries”.
haha
exactly, it’s not just the SM, it’s pretty much everything. aka unintended consequences that damage/destroy that which we don’t want to damage/destroy.
The current status quo ends at a fiscal cliff for the Government and further destruction of the manufacturing base and middle class.
There is no choice except to try to avoid that inevitability. Tariffs are a very sophisticated way of doing that, haven’t been really implemented by the USA for over a century. But are completely out of the box thinking for everyone alive today, which is why markets are going nuts.
Duderino,
it is amazing that some people on this site are clueless to basic economics.
Running deficits of trillions of dollars a year, letting other countries put tariffs on you while making nothing is going to end in either hyperinflation or depression
One should be happy that the U.S. now has a president that isn’t just laying down and hoping to pass the buck to the next guy before the system go’s down in flames
Kinda like the Biden admin. using every last penny in the reverse repo fund up to the election to keep the market going up
when will you learn politics has a lot to do with the markets, especially these days. If bothered move along
Thanks Gary, made enough to cover the yearly cost in your GLD call already.
Happy to sit on the sidelines & preserve cash until an ICL comes in even though we are probably early in the cycle & there are more gains to be made, happy to sit still until the next high probability trade comes round. Good luck to all 🙂
Did we get a sell the GLD call? I see a lot of people selling it, wasn’t sure.
No some of us just chose to take the quick profit ahead of the weekend.
I’m playing with an idea of adding before weekend close.
Too many gold positive open event loops and China Monday morning buying make it an attractive bet.
IS ANYBODY HERE STORING METALS WITH SCOTTSDALE????? paperboy, I don’t mean you amigo.
Why are you yelling? Is something wrong.
GTTA,
Hon
LOL hon
Last time i asked a question about scottsdale no one answered except paperboy, but he’s got a dog in that fight. so i am trying to be seen
signed, the invisible one.
This guy nailed the reversal today in silver https://x.com/albertherne/status/1910416051365421175
The SM seems to be firming up a bit this afternoon . Still a coin toss on if it has a rally / B-wave bounce or just heads farther down from here but I think , barring big China news this weekend , we could see PM’s and the SM in sync , going up together next week .
I think there will also be news regarding Iran talks on Saturday. Could make for a very exciting Monday open
Sold my GLD call…lots can happen over the weekend, but took my profit (61% – thks Gary for this call) and capital and added XGD with a stop to protect profit….will stay unleveraged until Gary says otherwise, or my stop is hit.
Kudos to you!
Great discipline and risk management.
Is there much left on the table? Possibly. But we are late in the cycle.
I personally am still in, but I respect your trade.
Controlling greed is important.
I thought we were on day 3 or 4 of 28 day cycle in gold? From that I would guess we have another week to go at least.
I FEEL its quite high today and I’m afraid of heights, but am no expert.
I’m trying to learn/understand cycles.
Wondering what the Fed is going to do. The treasury market could be in trouble if they don’t do something soon.
If the Fed “intervenes” with an emergency move…. lower rates and QE of some kind, what does that do to PM market? I think it will spike the SMs, but everything is so cloudy. I don’t know what to expect.
This could happen fast, we need to think this through. Thoughts?
If/when fed takes this action Gold will be on its way to 4k in short order IMO.
The whole world is wondering what the FED is going to do.
That said, in the short term, it should be positive for the metals.
Stay tuned.
Both Kashkari and Collins used the “L” word today. Neel Kashkari has been a hawk.
In the past they have used that word in a dovish context before they printed.
SLV really looks like it has put in a bullish island reversal pattern here
We have our runaway train. Silver just beginning its next leg and the new MOMO stocks are NEM and AEM. I do believe it is finally our turn. Not selling any and will add on any pull back.
Commodities finally jumping on board too. About time. Another area ridiculously oversold.
URA knocking on the door to a wkly swing
Agree. Added CCJ too.
New post
OK, mentioned many times above I will be taking half profits on my AGQs from adding and buying dips this week.
40% of ports. is too greedy for me this late in an ICs.
But I am still keeping 20% of ports. in AGQs for the what if I am right scenario and we get our 15% move in a week or 2 before topping out of this IC.
Plus, I will still be playing my 4/5- rule day trades and HODL my 20% AGQs
Still believe if my IC cycle is right 6 months our ICLs should still be in mid-May.
But as mentioned from as way back early last year once gold has broken out above $2100, we are not in Kansas anymore and that golds PBs will not be that deep going into our ICLs.
Have not done the Research yet but I do not think gold even got more than a 10% correction ever since breaking out of our $2100 resistance.
But silver and miners have took the blunt of those ICLs corrections.
Not saying it is going to be the same on this ICLs, but I will not be surprised gold does only a slight PB/ pause again during this ICLs (w/ a max. 10% PB).
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
Hon, This is a great post.
+100