At this point it’s pretty clear gold has completed a DCL. That would put it on day 3 of a fourth daily cycle. That’s late, but what are the odds a cycle is going to top on day 3? Slim IMO.
The dollar also appears to be rolling over so unlikely it has formed a final ICL. The obvious trigger event, barring something coming out of left field, would be the May FOMC meeting on May 7 for the dollar to find that elusive ICL
Gold has shown the greatest ability to ignore the stock market (just in case stocks roll over again) so I think we should stick with gold and wait for a proper ICL before considering GDX or SLV.
Now let me stress this because obviously some of you ignored my one contract recommendation on the SPY put and went heavy. You look like a genius at the moment but sooner or later the market will punish you for over committing. This could be the trade that it does that.
I can’t stress this enough. 1 or 2% of your capital. We aren’t going to risk very much of our gains on this trade.
We’re going to make a bet that the dollar is going to continue lower up to the week of the FOMC meeting and while the dollar drops gold should continue to rise.
The Trade:
GLD calls; June expiration; 282/283/284 strike.
Wait an hour or so for the spreads to tighten and see if there is a big pullback after the open. If there is we may reconsider taking this trade. Obviously you need to use limit orders.
And of course it’s perfectly acceptable to just let this trade pass and wait for a true ICL.
I’ve got a call in to the developer to see why the comments section disappeared. You can use the Apr. 9 report for the time being.
Comments (113)
Sounds like a plan. Will keep it to 1-2%, don’t worry. Learned how important risk assessment is from you. Way too late to go hard in leverage, plus it might be a fakeout.
Thanks Gary
Second today.
Thanks Gary
“The obvious trigger event, barring something coming out of left field, would be the May FOMC meeting on May 7 for the dollar to find that elusive ICL”
One thing I remember from the previous Trump admin 2016-2020 is that the Tweets stole the show from the Fed – meaning the market turns started to happen at unpredictable times as a result of some random tweet.
Next ECB might be trigger for euro. 1st week of May GDP & NFP reports.
I bought $10,000 of May QQQ Puts in the last hour of yesterday’s session. I’m down right now about $1,200, but looks like I will be selling for a profit today (fingers crossed). Then reenter with smaller GLD calls.
What a market.
I bought 100 contracts spxs at 3:50. yeah I feel like a genius but not really because I have long term holdings to protect which I couldn’t sell
Thanks Gary, what about SPY calls/leaps?
Could there be an entry point if we get back to sub 5000 levels?
No
How about silver ?
Can you read?
That was a GREAT laugh today!!
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/2t440Q0B/
What happens when USD cross the 2008 trend line $95 ?
Gary,
I see you updated the SM daily cycle to day 3. That makes it a really short cycle daily cycle and an extremely left translated IC and an even longer stretch in the 4 year cycle low….
Doesn’t it seem more likely that we get another leg down in this current DC in a week or so to get an undercut and a washout to an IC and 4 year cycle low?
I can see the comment section
GLD call 20th June or 30th June 25?
Assume the latest mark
20th! Always the 3rd week of the month per Gary.
Ty😃
Since I have plenty of trading capital idling, I plan to buy underlying to get equivalent exposure to “1-2%” calls. Probably will save some money on spreads and theta (less interest opportunity cost). Stops work better too.
Anyone can think of any good reason to prefer using the options? Other than risk of having funds stuck in this trade before the ICL deploy_all_funds signal triggers
Stops would have to be pretty tight. Not sure which I’ll do, being in similar position. I have a big chunk just sitting in VUBX waiting to strike.
Ah your point about stops points out the option advantage of inherent max loss limit at max 100% of deployed, useful in case the price tanks very hard.
And the difference if underlying stopped out, then I’m out of sync with the positioning of the rest here (who probably will just keep the near worthless option).
Did Gary said to get SPY put ( not more than 1% ) – what exp ?
recommend to go through the posts.
No. He did not.
he said to buy 1 option not 1 %
wow. it’s written very clearly. just wow.
“Gold has shown the greatest ability to ignore the stock market (just in case stocks roll over again) so I think we should stick with gold and wait for a proper ICL before considering GDX or SLV.”
“I can’t stress this enough. 1 or 2% of your capital. We aren’t going to risk very much of our gains on this trade.”
“GLD calls; June expiration; 282/283/284 strike.”
WRONG. 1-2% of your trading capital.
Yes -1 put option –
??? what is he referring when he says 1-2% of capital should not be used – was that for GLD trade ?
BTW – few post prior he did mention that he would give a signal when to get in again with the 1 put
😅
Yes yes – I see it now 1-2% in GLD -😅
😂
Wow.
Read it again.
Still seems like something is blowing up under the covers.
Bond yields are down very little given the recent rise and downside miss on CPI.
Backwardation in silver.
Very odd market.
If you are right the EURO would break out of the downtrend Channel but it is pretty late in this IC
Lots of gaps down this morning . I would expect at least some partial gap closures early on , but not sure how the day progresses after that . GLTA
Yesterday was a good example of why you should not short if you have no idea what you are doing.
1) Don’t short during extreme pessimism and during a crash (duh!). You short rallies not collapses
2) Always enter a break even stop once you have room. You’d have lost $0 had you done so yesterday
In any complex human endeavor there are lots of way to get it wrong. Getting something wrong does not mean it cannot be done. It means you are either undisciplined or ignorant. If you are either of those DO NOT SHORT. If you have bot of those things under control, it is no more dangerous than going long if you use inverse ETF’s
Why do we short rallies not collapses?
Because it’s better to short something at 50 on the way to 45 than at 35 on the way to 45.
You want to short before a collapse, not after an historic drop. Short optimism not pessimism; short overbought not oversold; short on rallies to resistance.
Makes sense thanks
If so, would you short gold right now after this mini rally?
Except you might short at 50 and it’s on its way to 60.
Easy to say, hard to pull it off in real time.
If gold makes new highs (and we aren’t there yet), would that suggest that this daily cycle should also be right-translated?
No, “right-translated” refers to when the cycle top comes in the latter half of the cycle. For example, if we make a higher high on Day 4 and drop for another 20 days, it is extremely left-translated.
Gary, was the volume yesterday in NUGT significant enough to make you think the cycle has turned in the miners?
High enough to make me think gold is still in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.
The GLD call seems ballsy. You’re expecting a higher hi….. and potentially 296+ achieved 3%. Even if new DC isn’t it RT at this point? So far we have 2 topping tails on the hourly. But I always seem wrong when G makes these short-term calls. So what do I know? Thoughts welcome.
Is it not clear that we are only using 1-2% because it is somewhat risky?
To clarify, you’re saying if see a big pullback (how big?), then don’t buy?
GLD250620C00282000 GLD250620C00283000 GLD250620C00284000 this ones?
looks right to me.
Thanks
My broker’s look like — GLD 06/20/2025 282.00 C
Miners taking the lead…
Gary, I take your comments to suggest you think both gold and silver still have not printed a proper ICL. Is that right?
First time buyer here.
At roughly what price or within what limit is “reasonable” to make this move?
usually spreads thin after 30 min of open or so….
It’s right there in the report.
Anybody trading VIX or UVIX? I’m just watching that – and everything – from the sidelines.
It seems that GDX traders agree with Gary. Since the open, GDX has gone up while SLV and GLD have gone down and SPY has trended down. That is the first clear divergence I have seen in a couple months, and it suggests higher prices for PM in short term.
I have to think that if gold gets back in blue sky breakout, they’re going to start looking at silver for a catchup trade in this daily cycle.
so far this IC, the silver catch-up move has been elusive… I’ll believe it when I see it.
Anyone enter yet?
Yep on the mild pullback, timed it ok by the look of it.
in on GLD options, 2%
yes accumulated bit by bit to 1%
No, Gary said wait an hour. Let the dust settle, still too crazy out there for me to jump on gold up $80.
Just had a great window to buy the GLD calls before it woke up. Green already.
same here…1 contract
Bought a June $284 GLD call here. I’m happier being cautious then too eager at this point in time.
I am not pulling the trigger yet June 20 284 at $15.10 .
Thank you – finally someone mention what the call price seems reasonable (I gather that’s below $15, in your opinion?).
Been wondering about that – what’s considered “reasonable” – since the price moved quite a lot today.
YW LOL , I bit and got it just below $15 .
Miners were the clue today
This is the final blowoff move that let’s no one into GDX
Golden Rule, My GDX target has been $48-50 for a month or so.
interesting – Insurance companies buying gold
https://asiainsurancereview.com/News/View-NewsLetter-Article?id=90709&Type=eDaily
Would this be comparable to MSTR & BTC?
this is for fun and games.
But it looks like despite gold being up alot in the last couple days it is not close to hitting extremes in momentum indicators that have pre-saged turn -downs:
red-line: extreme in Junior miners/GLD ratio
Green-line: extreme in ROC indicator
blue-line: extreme reading in both
The only thing its close in is it is touching the RSI(4) over-sold line which in a down-trending or flatish market or a market in the process of printing and ICL rejects price but this does not seem to be the case obviously. On the contrary there is every reason to think price will embed.
I hope I am not misleading anyoone I’m kinna new to doing this type of analysis
Disclosure: Long GLD June 287 calls (up 13% ATM)
Thanks Gary!
Will pass on this one in the hope of a better deal!
I’m in with 284 strike June 30 calls.
In the trade
Gdx breaking out without me, oh well, I will be patient for a better entry. Unless we are now entering the parabolic stage, there should be a less risky entry.
In with just one GLD call.
In on 3x contract for 248 20 Jun at 13.25
Hopefully you have a typo, 248 is way ITM, it was for 284
ah yea lol 284, ty
I can’t deny that I feel regret at selling the call options on my miners looking at them the past few days. I never expected this kind of rally.
For those who are new at options, it’s not easy to figure out what to buy, when to buy it.
Start small. Get used to it. Read about them.
Took me a few times to figure things out. Some thoughts…
1. Not all calls and puts are created equal. The 3rd week of the month is generally the monthly call. That’s what I buy, more volume. If you’re really good, you can do the weeklies, but stay with the monthly as a novice. In the case of these calls we just bought… May 20th.
2. The value of your option – they are valued at the bid price. That is NOT the value. Often, the market makers put low bids in, which does not reflect the value. The value is what someone will pay. So look at the bid and the ask to determine what the value is.
3. If you’re buying, do stink bids (low) right at the open. Do not pay the ask. That’s the market makers or someone like me trying to take advantage of you. If your low bid at open doesn’t pan out, wait for the bid-ask spread to get closer.
4. Watch the underlying index for clues as to when to buy. For calls, if you see lower highs and lower lows on the minute chart, and you have conviction to buy, wait for that to turn back up, then buy.
5. With Puts, it’s the converse of course. I bought QQQ Puts at the close yesterday. I had conviction that today would be a down day. I used the SPX index as my underlying index, not Qs. But either would have worked. It kept going up and then when it flattened, I bought my Puts.
6. Gary will tell you to buy “in the money” to avoid total losses. You still can get total losses, but your odds are better in the money. Of course, your upside isn’t as high, but in poker, this is called “pot control”. Try not to let your options expire worthless!
Hope this helps. These are the things I’ve learned.
Hi, if anyone has actually calculated and/or has a grasp of the cost comparison ATM and ITM I have a question –
So if I bought an option $3 itm and then it expired same underlying price, returning me $3, it kind of sounds like I just took that $3 on a joyride since the price difference at different strike prices are seems fair. Is the reason for going ITM to do with option specific cost? trading psychology? (I’m sure newbie don’t like seeing very deep/complete loss)
OTM pricing suggests to me I’m paying a premium for more leverage, quite clear to me there
Thank you Gally, started to learn some of these on my skin.
Thanks Gally. This is helpful and simple to understand. Small correction G rec’d jun 20th calls not may, maybe you took may? #2 are you saying stink bids at the bid price? Gary says mid price. the minute chart is interesting.
And lastly, why did you choose to use spy instead of Qs yesterday? Specifically?
Thanks very much for sharing this Gally, very helpful.
Thanks Gally, valuable tips. Wish we had a forum for newby education
/gc right at the 5 day overbought. Tomorrow may reveal what is really going on.
In April 2024, GC1!, RSI 5 was embedded in overbought for most of the month – bring it on!
Despite GDX being up alot it looks like it is not in the danger zone for any of these momentum indicators (red horizontal line for each), and I guess the reason is because its coming back from a point a price got whacked real hard.
It looks like RSI hasn’t even embedded yet and MACD is just in the process of crossing.
Maybe a good buy on a pull-back because me personally I chased rally in SM yesterday to get back in w/ 401(k) and now taking my lumps think that’s enough chasing for a while. ( Gary, glad to see you think the SM DC low is as noted in cycle counts.)
Hope this is relevant or useful to someone.
Thanks.
PS: up about 23% in GLD calls rn and yes I bought more than 1 guilty as charge. Gary thanks for heads upon the trade.
Glad I have my physical. No worries, Catches out of the blue rally’s!
With the ferocity of yesterday’s SM rally in response to a softening stance on the Tariff situation, I was almost certain that the Feb 19 to Apr 9 decline was a completed abc Wave A down, and with the rally yesterday, SPX was starting Wave B up to the 5700-5800 area on SPX. The problem here is that the SM rally stopped right at the first Wave down from Feb 19, which increases the odds that the first 3 waves down from the top were part of a 5 Wave impulse move. If this turns out to be true, yesterday’s move was an abc Wave 4 up, and we have started Wave 5 down to a new low in the vicinity of 4500 SPX in late April or early May. A move above SPX 5500 would keep the potential ABC scenario still alive, and Bullish for the next couple of weeks. Daily SPX attached with the Bearish interpretation.
I think we get down to SPX 5150-5250 then we get a bounce.
My current game plan, subject to change as things develop…
I’m selling my puts when we get in the local bottom range above, then flipping to calls until we get to 5750ish. Then flipping back to puts because I think the rug gets pulled, and youur 4500 SPX might be a HIGH estimate.. I see sub 4000 (new lows)!
Thanks feldman. I bought sqqq pre-mkt up 5+% at the moment. And thank you for your feedback on DRV the other day. I was stuck in a bad position for a long time that I got out of a little better than BE. Plus the divies so it tied up cash for a long time, but i didn’t sell at the bottom or lose $ which is good!
I sold b4 your response but it confirmed my choice and then yesterday boy was i grateful.
YW.
Good analysis thanks Feldman! I did not take the trade today but happy for those that did. Sitting on my hands. Such a bi polar market. SPXS 7.45 now 7.77 coming off lod
YW.
I didn’t end up buying the GLD call, but I did buy some GLD shares and sold covered calls on them that expire Friday. The market behavior is concerning, and I was a little late this morning. If gold goes up, they expire and I make a quick $1,800. If gold goes down I pocket the call premium and I have some GLD, which is not quite as good as physical, but at least it follows it.. yay.
spot gold just made ATH
Just a reminder we are playing only a possible DCL in GLD.
Gold should remain strong w/ only mild dips/ pauses into our ICLs.
Pretty sure this is not an ICL yet, so I am going to let my ton of physical catch this ride w/o worrying about FOMO.
Risking 1%-2% is ok as a R/R, but not really worth my time and energy for a very short-term trade.
Reminder we are not out of the woods yet in timing (cycles) wise in anything yet (SM, PMs, Oil,) still too early.
We still could have a 4YCL in the SM and that would pull PMs down with it going into the last few weeks of that PB.
1 day does not change a trend, so Gary is right and only risk a very small 1% of ports.
I for one will wait for the fat pitch! JMHO and 0.02c.
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
+1
dumb question what is SM in SM rally..smart money???
Stock Market
Are we still going for 282/283/284? I mean these are 8-10 strikes in the money (which seems a lot to me).
HON,
Sometimes we refer to SM. I want to be sure. Does this refer to Semi conductors and/or Smart Money? I know PM is Presious Metals.
SM here, stock market
Thank you so much alphabet soup!!!! IMHO we have to be sure thanks CAL!!!
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