Short term sentiment reached extreme levels after Friday’s rally plus price is stretched far above the 10 DMA. That is a good sign though as sentiment doesn’t reach these kind of extremes unless the asset is in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. Ideally metals will churn sideways for a few days or a mild pullback that will set up another leg higher.
And another warning about options. They only work in strongly trending markets. Stocks are gyrating violently as is almost everything except metals. None of those markets are suitable for option trades.
Comments (85)
Yippee
It seems like a harbinger of further upside that there has been a mild PB in the metals but the PM stocks are positive on the day.
Copy that.
We may not get much of a pull back if the dollar continues to tank and it definitely looks like it wants to head lower pretty badly.
Good morning all,
Out of curiosity, does everyone maintain 80% physical metals? Since my trading portfolio has doubled my metals have not doubled, therefore the ratio 80/20 is slightly skewed. If my portfolio doubles again it likely will be off even more. Are most people taking profits out of their trading accounts and buying physical?
Sorry I this has been mentioned somewhere, I’m a relatively new subscriber.
remember Gary suggested to buy physical during ICL? At that time you can balance your 80/20 🙂
Great questions. I’ve often wondered the same. Any one just buying sprott ETF’s in place of physical?
No i want my physical in my hands!
I do. Then you can sell at tops and buy back lower like the recent
correction. Holding bars or coins and pretending it isn’t a loss when they go down in value is silly.
Yes, I do, and only Sprott ETFs.
I highly doubt the majority of this group has 80% physical, based on their questions and nervous tendencies.
Of course I was wrong once in the 80’s!
Yes, after we double we diversify into physical, this is how we stay above water when things go wrong.
Yes, I think we’re about 90% in actual physical metal and a mere 10% in a cash/trading slush fund 👍
I continue to add physical at ICLs. Have been for years.
Also one other point on sentiment. The gold and silver optix that sentimentrader.com calculates have a ways to go to become over bought or extreme overbought.
These are more of an intermediate type indicator which is currently signaling more upside over the next few weeks.
What LEAP’s / strike are you looking at for June when we go all in on leverage?
I’ll have to see where we’re at when we get the ICL before I can pick the appropriate LEAP’s.
Quick heads-up – TradingView has got a sale on for the next week:
https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/
Hedgeye is offering their Macroview service for $99 reg 299
Repost, caught again by a new post.
“58
honmag002says:
April 14, 2025 at 9:22 am
Since I have a little time, I will post thoughts on being patient for our ICLs in PMs.
We still are late in our ICs in gold, and we/I are really not expecting our ICLs until mid-May- June.
Any trades are to be for very short-term w/ very little capital to risk just hoping for a base hit or (Hoping for that last blow off pop.)
Preserving your profits and ports. waiting for the fat pitch (ICLs) in a trending move in PMs and going all-in twice a year is where the big money is made.
It is ok to scratch your trading itch, if necessary, but wealth preservations are most important to be able to take advantage and compound your profits twice a year.
I would rather make 50% profits on ports. compounded twice a year, then 100% profits once a year.
Volatility if not kept in check will wither away your profits.
GTTA,
Hon”
Thanks
Gary
Hon
GTTA
Thanks Hon
Thank you Hon
I did the 4/5 today! I think I am doing it right. Use a 5-minute candle to see the swing, and enter the position after a swing is confirmed. Once in profit, tighten stop and set a 2% trailing. I got stopped out of AGQ and JNUT. NUGT is still hanging on with/ 4% profit and is still going. Many thanks. =)
Hedgeye has Gold Silver GDX and a basket of non US currencies as the ONLY assets in a bullish trend…OH VIX as well
Thanks for this. Hedgeye always seems to be on the right side of momentum.
Good to hear
Good wisdom. Appreciate it, Gary.
Gary, I am seeing Gold down and DUST down. What is that? Does this tell us anything other than market manipulation or the short-term nature of the Gold pull-back?
DUST follows NUGT not gold.
Good trading and good luck to you and all,
Hon
This guy keeps nailing it:
I’ve been waiting for Cem to put out another interview and this is the first comprehensive one since the tariff selloff.
He predicted a decline in SPX to around 5175 into the end of March.
Now predicting a bounce to 5650 to 6000.
Followed by a decline into the end of the year to around 3400 to 4000.
I think panic selling during that later decline will affect metals and miners and this is what the cartel is anticipating in terms of covering more shorts.
In the meantime, during this bounce, I expect silver and miners to catch up with gold as especially miners are something institutions will gravitate toward given the persistent high gold price and its outstanding resistance to selling during the recent panic.
Bof,
If he’s right (Hon please chime in if desired) I’m having a hard time seeing how crypto makes a higher high with its strong correlation to the S&P?
That would surely suggest the high is in at $108k ?
Aloha seolfor,
I have not even watched the video yet, but my cryptos in my wallets are like my physical PMs. HODL!
Been through multiple SM crashes/ recessions and this is why preserving wealth in case of a SM correction/ recession is looked at an opportunity.
This is why majority of your capital should be in physical PMs, Cryptos, or cash, to be able to take advantage of these opportunities.
P.S. Cryptos will follow the SM most likely so have more of your reserves in physical PMs / cash!
And let’s go AGQs!
JMHO and 0.02c.
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
I have the idea that cryptos will do well as soon as they moneyprinting starts in earnest again. Ditto for precious metals. None of these have to provide a return on investment which will cap the recovery in stocks.
I hope he is right as that is my view as well. I am hoping to have a good spot to short this bounce. That target would be both the declining 200 and 50 DMA’s
Thanks, buddy appreciate the heads up.
Might be time for Sashimi Slayer part 2!
Good trading and good luck to you and all,
Hon
Panicky lows are usually tested. If someone buys something at 35 and watches it go to 25, they are relieved not to have sold it at the low when it bounces, so the rally gets selling pressure once the “bargain hunters” are done. “Whew! I sure don’t want to see 25 again. Better get out now.”
On the test of the low—if it is too hold—there are lots of technical divergences like RSI, which is well higher on the test than on the initial low, the number of new 52 week lows, etc. We will see.
https://t.me/+SSOTxgtZ9r0zOWI5
Friends of SMT telegram channel
Silver still in backwardation.
I got silver futures price above spot now just by a little.
Would like to see future price accelerate this week closer to $0.50-$1 above spot. #fingerscrossed!
GTTA,
Hon
Yeah, they crossed shortly after posting. Hopefully we get that solid $0.50-$1.00 spread on it soon.
Hi Gary, what are you using to see PM sentiment overdone? Sentimentrader.com’s Optix has gold a little worse than neutral at 75 and silver as neutral at 64. TIA.
I have access to DSI – gold is at 86 and silver at 80, both on higher side. I have seen them get to 90, once or twice a year.
I’m using short-term sentiment in GDX, GLD, and SLV.
DG, As I mentioned in my post #7 Sentimentrader.com’s gold and silver Optix are more of an intermediate term sentiment measurement.
The GLD, GDX, and SLV Optix are short term. GLD and GDX are both at 96 which is a super extreme reading. However there are periods such as 2016 where it got this high multiple times through out the rally.
Fair enough. I knew that. Can I attribute my brainless question to Monday morning brain fog? 🙂
Dear Lord, please do not allow me to join the hoard of silly question askers. Amen.
G/S ratio topping. long way to regress to the mean. Good sign for silver. target – 88 – GSR.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8Emsgb78/
Caution warranted. DUST and GDXD volumes are averaging much higher over the past week of trading. Although no severe spikes yet.
Pocket change SPY May puts initiated. My stink bid QQQ May hit too. Q’s already green yay!
Just like a casino, not expecting to win.
My downside SPX target is 5100. Then I think we climb to 6000 or more.
BTC update: We are on day 31 and could have a possible HCL on day 27.
Also, BTC is breaking above its downtrend line today at $85Kish, so possible up tick for the short-term, until out ICLs around mid-May.
If BTC holds anywhere around here and green day tomorrow will break through that downtrend line from the beginning of this year.
GTTA,
Hon
David Hunter just raised his near term gold target from $3400 to $4000, silver remains $75. FYI
I’m assuming this would be after we get thru the ICL.
What’s “near term”??
For Hunter “near term” = “whenever it get’s there … if ever”.
Yet I like to listen to his prognostications, fwiw.
He’s been saying this for 5 years.
Before the end of the year for the metals and SM targets, NAZ 25K.
He’s been right before, he called the top in 2021. But as he keeps saying, giving a precise time call for the top of a SM 42 year bull is impossible. So I’ll give him that.
I’d give him more benefit of the doubt than Armstrong or some of the other nuts out there. We’ll find out soon enough.
But if he pegs those numbers what he sees coming after that is horrific.
Thanks for sharing.😃
SPX – I don’t see a pivot until the 1st week of May. The price pattern, momentum indicators says higher for the short term. patience.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/X3j8z7JLT
Aloha Nevco,
Could not open, but could we be syncing up to everything (SM, BTC, PMs,) having 1–2-week pop before heading into our ICLs mid-May-June?
This is how some of my novice charts are looking as a possibility timing wise.
P.S. I normally only chart BTC and PMs, but BTC does kind of follows the SM.
Good trading and good luck to you and all,
Hon
I know Gary’s view on CL. VNOM, oil, an royaltly similiar to RGOLD, to gold royality.
The pattern suggests, imho, higher price, maybe a regression to mean? Stocks may drag oil down, but I think the bottom is in for oil. Long term momementum indicators are +.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rsnpQNRY/
Going out on a limb here, since silver futures and spot prices are about the same still yet.
I am holding full positions AGQs overnight, have a great cushion on the slight chance of a blue day tomorrow in silver futures.
And if we have our normal 4/5 rule early morning PB, will do my usual trio day trades again.
P.S. attention robert, this is where I sold my NUGT ($72ish)) mentioned earlier today.
#fingercrossed!
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
Addendum to above on silver futures this is how we get paid on our AGQ, SLV, PSLV, it is based on futures prices not on spot prices.
So, let’s go broncos on future silver prices tomorrow.
GTTA/ GLTA,
Hon
G, stks, looking for that longer term start for QQQs/SMH and S&P …
Are we now convinced that the S&P 4/08/25 ICL bottom is in at 4995ish and we have a new DCL in progress, so we need to wait for the next ICL or ? Tough chart to read, gracias
I’m not convinced of that at all.
Since the beginning of 2nd Q , oil has expeienced what see as a volatility pivot.
72.50 to 55.50, $20 in 2 in weeks!
Imho, oil will regess to the mean, if not higher. We are in a war cycle.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hUh61Wie/
I work for a very large U.S. oil company and can tell you that oil will absolutely not go up.
Nothing in the energy sector excites me short or mid term. Metals are the trending move and are still in play. Listen to Gary. Beware of making mistakes of taking trades because the SP is low.
Put in a lowball bid on Defiance Silver, got filled on the 8th and it’s already up 45%. I’ll take it.
A quick look at silver:
Day 5 of DC4. Another constructive day for silver, closing for a second day in a row above the 10 dma. Early in a DC, price can gyrate around the 10 dma, in this case, price tested the 10 dma from above and bounced higher for an easy test. The RSI(5) continues to trend higher into overbought sentiment. As the DC progresses, the RSI(5) should break above and embed in the oversold condition. A nice clean cycle so far. Steady as she goes, captain.
2Infinity, thank you.
Did you mean “the RSI(5) should break above and embed in the overBOUGHT condition.”?
Thanks.
Absolutely. That is an error.
Thanks.
Hi, is your channel with the blue lines by the massive break still relevant?
This is a very compelling TA chart of UGA. Gas “wars” ahead?
UGA has broken out lower out of a symetrical triangle. We all know about false breakouts of contiuation patterns. If it recovers inside the triangle, +.TA is the best tool to track volatile markets imho.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Wxe8wRM7/
Gas futures confirmation
RBOB
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoHaAPeQ/
DBC, commodities, ag – suggest a trend pivot is immanent.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jbde8Spk/
PM’s -RGOLD – very bullish pattern
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lFqxxx72/
BTC, imho, is a confidence etf (store of value?) of the financial stability of the $ and global and price volatility.
Currently BTC is in a complex pattern that remains unresolved currently, but the trend is up. The trend is you friend.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/a0VtAy8e/
My last 2 cents on the ES pattern to year end. The mid year pivot is “pivotal”.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Iff8P3bU/
I know its FOMO, but my research says gold should go way higher by July 2026 (search for recent Judy Shelton interview videos), so I’m accumulating GLD leaps on days gold goes down. I’m selling ones that have ripened and are deep in the money and replacing them each time with ones farther out and a little higher than current price in order to keep increasing the quantity held because my Roth IRA accounts have limited funds, and I don’t ever want to owe taxes on these.
You can laugh at me if you like…
Ballsy … I’d rather keep accumulating PSLV with large pullbacks… glty
Would be much more profitable to trade the intermediate cycles.
Interesting that silver July futures have broken above the resistance level it’s been stuck at for a few days whereas spot is yet to break above that line.
Will we get that explosive move to the upside when spot breaks above this resistance level?
Hi Gary don’t you think dollar index may have bottmed out aka completed its ICL?.
Candles on daily chart are showing sign of sellers being exhausted.
IDK to this novice, based upon the last 5 years $GOLD weekly chart, these momentum indicators are looking like they are at peak levels and pullback is imminent like this week or next:
1. MACD very elevated (second panel)
2. ROC at this level has always signaled imminent pull -back as seen by red vertical lines (3rd panel)
3. RSI has been in over-bought for seemingly its max time limit. (4th panel)
However this time maybe different now that suppression at 2,000 has been broken. But even looking at the post 2,000 level time frame, these levels in momentum indicators have always produced sideways churn with down-ward bias until 10 WMA has been approached as you can see.
Not sure I want to bet the farm that this time will be different and price will keep going. This seems to back the argument that the correct r/r at the moment is to sit tight and wait for ICl given at best limited upside poetential
Daily chart pretty much tells same story altho a little more mixed. Ignoring MACD (2nd panel), I looked for situations over the last 3 yrs where there was an extreme ROC level (3rd panel) combined with negative divergence in RSI (4thpanel) like we have now.
As shown the last 5 times this occurred there was a short-term PB to at least the 10DMA (red vertical lines), 2 prior times before that there was however, just side ways chop before more upside (green vertical lines). However in those instances price was not as stretched above the 10 DMA , but was essentially right on 10 DMA.
This seems to say if your in, take profits soon and get out of dodge.
But then again as certain subs will tell you I have no f____n idea what I’m talking about. but then again that’s from subs who never contribute anything other than contempt of others attmpts to contribute and apparently have never had a creative thought of their own at least that they have published. So draw your own conclusions perhaps
we arent betting the farm… 1-2%
Thank you, Gary!