The odds favored the FOMC would mark the cycle low and that has played out. Actually the final low occurred on Thursday as I noted at the time but we churned a bit until the FOMC trigger released the move to get some momentum.
We’re only 4 days into this daily cycle. Even if this cycle is destined to left translate (and it probably is) we should still have 5-10 more days before the top so there’s no reason to get trigger happy right now and sell the QQQ/SPY calls for a loss. We may end up making money on those is the SPX double tops or produces a breakout.
The same for energy. The rally today was huge and this is what I wanted to see to scrap the strategy of selling on an overbought 3 day RSI. Basically big money just wasn’t ready to buy until we tested that lower triangle trend line. Once we did they came in big time. Which probably means oil is at least going to test the upper trend line again and it may breakout. So we will give this one the benefit of the doubt as well and hold for now. This may end up producing a nice gain as well.
And finally we covered all the bases that I asked for in gold. We have a confirmed breakout and a close well above $2470. It appears gold is on day 4 of a new daily cycle (the same as the SPX). So we will let this one run as well.
I’m going to give miners the benefit of the doubt as well and bank on embedding the BPGDM at 100% for several weeks in anticipation of testing the next resistance zone ($42) before a more serious pullback.
Silver could reach resistance at $35.
Now of course if everything reverses then we will stop out and try again in Sept. But for now metals are doing what we want them to do.
Comments (44)
1st
Well done Gary.
Hoping for some serious follow through tomorrow with Miners.
Gary, did you see my prior post regarding /GC chart is skewed due to contract roll?
GLD or XAUUSD (can be viewed in TradingView) don’t align with /GC.
Agree, should be looking at “GOLD” in TV at least to confirm new high if gonna make a big call like that.
Gary, any thoughts on SOXL short term projection from here, perhaps a continued rally to some extent? Thx
😈
Gary, you’re the best!
Gary, I am currently cash and haven’t taken any trades (I’ve been busy with work and haven’t been too involved with SMT)
After oils big bounce today, I am inclined to get a base hit and maybe buy some UCO hoping for that upper trended line. Would you suggest I take an oil trade or the GDX trade ?
Thx
both
are you recommending taking the full trade on GDX now? Or did I miss the indicator, either way…are you suggesting to buy more tmw am? Any advice on how to hop in with this explosive move?
Thanks Gary! You’re the best 💪
Oil on the move tonight!
We’ll hold until you say Commander. My contracts are nice and green now.
Rejoice Gold Bugs 🍾
Trent, I am dubious that the Cartel will allow a substantial Gold breakout above $2500. If they can’t stop it, that would have very Bullish implications. One would think that smaller miners that are down 70% or more from the Feb 2022 highs would wake up and run. Many are trading where they were at $1000 Gold.
Gary, I know we’re in GDX but are we in gold/silver trades? It’s hard to keep up, especially when updates are sometimes in the comments.
Waiting for a 5% up day in GDX and 8% in SILJ and SIL.
Thank you , Gary. You are on a roll!
I bought the 471 Aug 23 QQQ calls on the 22nd of July, so its been 9 days so far. I am worried about time decay. I have 23 days left. It seems like I could have until Aug 7 ( the end of next week) before I should sell, unless I sell sooner, of course.
I am only guessing, what do you think? When does time decay take over?
I was down over 77%, I gained over 160% today, so now I am down 40% (a huge improvement).
Google options calculator and use it to review all scenarios you may think of
Thank you Thorsgrunn. I will give it a try.
Per request of Adamant,
Aloha Gary is this cycle count posted earlier what you see?
honmag002says:
July 31, 2024 at 5:39 pm
JMHO on my cycle count w/ PMs.
I think we have to go w/ scenario# 2, where unless we are going to get a 4YCL crash event this year.
We are not going to get that big scary PB to $2100 in gold (esp. in future contract price).
I think in gold we were in a long consolidation/ triangle period which thrown off our cycle counts.
I also thinking we had an ICL/ retest in gold last month just below $2300 and today is day 4 of our 2nd DC in gold.
Silver was delayed and gotten hit pretty hard, but I also think we are on day 2 coming out of our ICL on Monday as mentioned.
If so, $27.56 should hold for a while.
I know better not to think this time is different and have mentioned this before, but it has seemed like we do not get the attacks as deep from the ____ like before we broke $2100 barrier.
This is just my observation and MHO and 0.02c.
I offer any other analysis and charting.
P.S. I am a little bias (gold bug issues).
So, I am going to play this as I would coming out of an ICL for silver and a 1st DC for gold.
50% of portfolios in unleveraged PMs miners (GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, and AGQ) and hold as my basket.
And every morning as my day trades if we get that early morning dip add (GDXU, JNUG, NUGT, AGQ,) and those leveraged ETFs AND are only day trades (Rinse and repeat)
Of course, I will honor my trailing stops, but since I mentioned on Monday silvers ICL, my large position in AGQ has a big cushion.
GTTA,
Hon
I’m not confident of the cycle count in gold. I’m assuming gold will continue higher until the dollar hits a final ICL.
OK, thanks for your reply.
Much Mahalo,
Hon
As per BTC, even if BTC breaks below my target ($63500) by this weekend I am only going to buy partial (HODL, BITX, GBTC) no miners for now.
Iam going to be patient over the weekend, because we are only on day 24 today and I prefer to wait until day 30ish.
Tonight’s surprise is Japan (Nikkei) is getting dump early tonight, I would have thought otherwise from our great NAS and SOXX rip today?
Here is the reply on BTC from this morning:
Reply
12.2.1.1
honmag002says:
July 31, 2024 at 10:27 am
Aloha recentsunrise777,
Yes, an undercut of $63500, the only problem w/ that is it is scheduled to happen on next weekend.
So, I may have to buy higher before or after next weekend.
GTTA,
Hon
We may hit that before the weekend
Hon, what is your reasoning behind using multiple trading vehicles for Bitcoin? Thanks.
What’s your thoughts on uranium stocks. They have taken quite a shelacking lately,, time to re enter?
I was clear weeks ago that I don’t think I will be able to trade a market as erratic as uranium. I think it is in a long term bull market so my best advice is treat uranium positions like you do physical.
How do you store it? 😎😁
WEAT
Food for thought, in more ways than one.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LyUwc9aW/
Hello Gary, for Gold Futures atm I look at the continuous Comex contract. I think you said sth about August Futures a few weeks ago, that cant apply anymore, what do you use here in general ? Thank You, Oliver
I use GLD for a few days after a contract roll then I go with the active month.
At these volatile times, I thought to check the monthly charts.
stocks – https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKJremtB/
gold -https://www.tradingview.com/x/3yACKOEb/
ohttps://www.tradingview.com/x/96MpC18c/il –
just my take
Gary, so for the big opportunity in metals, do we still wait for the September ICL or we start building positions now?
stocks, gold
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t18Dlo8i/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PHy0AZTK/
“ I’m going to give miners the benefit of the doubt as well and bank on embedding the BPGDM at 100% for several weeks in anticipation of testing the next resistance zone ($42) before a more serious pullback.”
Do I understand you’re aiming for a 5% rise in the asset? If so, what’s the point of buying?
It’s more than 10% rise for GDX
Sorry 10%. Even so, I’d prefer to only go for intermediate rallies, with more surety and gains.
Gary, any thought as to why Silver seems so lacklustre?
Does it have any predictive power regarding the susutainability of the move in Gold?
Gary when you say ‘the same for energy’ do you mean only 5-10 days left for it to run as well? Thanks
The US$ is often written off quickly but a strong rally could quickly spoil the gold bulls party.
Hmmm .. Nikkei 2.5%, copper down again already. We might not get 5 days…
I was hoping the currency traders would follow through today but it looks like they are going to whipsaw and fleece directional traders.
I don’t think it will reverse any of yesterday’s moves but leverage isn’t going to work in an erratic market.
So we will stick with our trades and just endure the attempts to whipsaw us back and forth.