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Comments (74)
First?!
Yes a first….Well played.
Wow well said by Gary i’ve learned the hard way myself you gotta sit on your hands and wait. And you can’t FOMO into trades.
Random comment:
Technical analysis on derivatives like 2x long or short funds is non-sensical.
The moves on these funds are based solely on the underlying. The tail does not wag the dog here.
While volume in and out of these funds, can be a potential validator of whatever is happening in the underlying, whatever else you see, patterns and the like… if it’s not happening in the underlying then don’t worry about it.
Gary what are thoughts of gold weekly chart? Currently price trading below 10WMA & it is turning down. Possible ICL bottom forming? Or at least parameters are being met
In the video he said likely icl behind us and we are currently forming DCL1.
He also said we are in a long sideways churn… which would mean the big moves are still to come this IC
Thanks Gary! Happy on the sidelines until the next setup in metals lines up.
Thanks Gary
Appreciate this subscription and in it for the metals and the long run.
Any thoughts or odds of a pop to $38-39 which drawers buyers in before a dip down to buy zone?
They don’t call it PAYtience for no reason
Hey Gary, what do you think about Wisconsin Swiss Cheese?
Here, look at my chart…. Now where did I put that thing?
Looks like some gaps need to close. idk 😉
Certainly gaps the LIKES OF WHICH WE’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE
Thanks Gary . Two runs a year in PM’s is fine with me .
+ 10
However good to hear comments from other traders…. just don’t ask Gary … 🙂
Thanks Gary – sitting patiently on sidelines.
My portfolio is closer to 50/50 physical v trading. Is now a decent time to buy more physical ?
Not Gary:
Anytime from now until suppression officially breaks, is a great time to buy physical metals. 👀👍🏻
Gary,
Well said, thank you.
If the cartel paints the monthly silver chart below $35.50, have you thought about what we’d do in that case😟?
Gary,
I just got out of the mountains and got cell service.
I’m still holding a substantial amount of Bitcoin ETF.
What do you recommend?
Grizz
The rest of us took our profits and are waiting for the signal in metals.
I realize that.
But that’s not my situation.
Please assess why you recommend buying it and why you recommend selling it last week ( when I didn’t have cell service)
What has changed with time and what you would do if you were me.
Thanks
review the reports.
How does looking in the rear view mirror, help me see where I need to go?
This is the first time I have invested in bitcoin, (upon your recommendation)
I have no familiarity with it.
I get your position.
I will figure it out!
We had a nice profit and you have a nice profit. We locked up our gains and are waiting for the signal to go heavy in metals.
Why would you not do the same?
It may help to do some paper trades before you jump into something that you state your knowledge was lacking. There will always be another train coming to the station. Gary is not infallible so imho always do your due diligence before risking your hard earned. I can’t believe that people on here think options trading is for newbies, market manners fleece individuals everyday.
We buy LEAP’s to avoid the fleecing.
I was watching JR Simplot corner the potato market before you were a glimmer in your fathers eye!
holy crap the entitlement. Gary has 1000s of subscribers, but somehow he owes you a full individually tailored review of a trade he told the rest of us to get out of while you were out of cell service. I don’t understand how he continues to have the patience for these entitled requests. There is a week of posts where he articulated his plan, go back and review it and figure it out ffs.
At this point, how about the fact that the line in the sand was 100k and it went below that by almost 2k?
At this point, how about the fact that it’s currently at 106K!
I held too. I am glad I did. I think we are in the right place at the right time…for now. So, place tight stops. And, the next resistance is 108 ish. I might hop out then…but I need to see the entire picture. Love it when cell service – serves you!
Blessings.
the Mystic
Thank you, Mystic.
Hi Grizzly,
I’m with you, I’m based in Aussie and so missed the opportunity to get out with the Sell signal. I’ve hung on to the Bitcoin Options I have rather than race to sell them. In my case I’ve got a couple of LEAPs. Yes, currently my losses are around 20% on this 1 trade, but I’ve got time and I’m happy to wait.
At the end of the day, if I lose a bit, I’m ok with that, I’ve made money in other trades.
Having said that, I agree with Mystic below. I’m waiting for the upturn and then I’ll look to exit.
I hope that gives some peace.
Cheers.
We got a base hit out of the bitcoin trade. That’s all we needed. We don’t need to catch every penny of this trade. At the time I made the call bitcoin was at risk of triggering our stop (which it did the next day). In real time we made the right call.
Now we are waiting for the DCL in gold to finish before putting that cash back to work. If silver breaks the suppression our cash will be treated much better in leverage silver than in bitcoin anyway.
Bitcoin now has a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Maybe it can recover, but without a crystal ball I have no idea. Generally when a pattern of lower lows and lower highs forms it’s time to get out as an intermediate decline is usually underway. You can still exit with a profit and prepare for the next trade when gold forms its next DCL.
if this trendline holds peak at about 109ish.
that was a cool story about the potatoes. I can counter with my own story of I was around when Colombian Gold peaked at about $50/oz. retail and then dissapeared off the face.
Come to think of it you don’t really see potato futures traded guess cuz that guy owns them all. Cool name ‘Simplot’ really…sounds likeit should be the name of hightech company.
Honestly don’t know why that guy so worked up. He made money on the trade. I got my arsenal kicked on the BTC becauseof my own mistakes (wenttoo heavy on trade 2).
These are my musings for the day on these topics, fwiw, and I know for some people very little ….so tothem I say with all my feeling and emotion, poo on you.
Gary is this some kind of ‘flying wedge’ pattern? Looks like its breaking down a little dropped below the lower trend-line) but then again the dollar looks like it might be having its last gasp…. so who knows
Thanks for the guidance Gary, I’ve taken your advice and exited. Today’s rise gave a little cream on top.
Cheers
Cheers, Gary.
Buckle up everyone 😎
Ready to lose some teeth?
Gary you sound much better. Two metals cycles a year is great. Let’s go!
September 19, 2024 – Gary’s tutorial on Option trading.
For those new on-board the G-Train, you may want to review these two videos in the archives.
Gary,
I love your work and truly appreciate being able to learn from you. I’m a subscriber until you retire.
Have a really nice evening.
Hi Gary , it seems to me that without the proper ICLs you are now of the view that the bull market in gold and silver might be shorter in duration and maybe 2 to 3 years rather than 3 to 4 years ?
Does it give us enough time for Gold to potential hit $10,000 and Silver to cross $100 ?
Yes plenty of time. The last year of a bubble and price goes linear straight up. 100% or more in a year or even more is possible and probable.
I hope it is five years because I want to learn as much as possible from you before you retire.
+1
Is silver opex tomorrow?
Options on gold/silver futures typically expire on the fourth business day prior to the first notice day of the underlying contract, i.e. for the July option, the expiration would be June 25.
We still got Friday (weekly) and Monday (monthly and quarterly) ahead of us. Since silver, like nat gas, has a reputation as a widowmaker, it makes sense to be patient.
who?
Darth Guderian von Kepler McFourier Archimedes
say his name in a mirror three times and see what happens.
Gary,
I know I’m jumping the gun here, but…
At what point during this bull market do we stop buying physical?
Do we keep the 80% rule until the final bubble phase? Or do we let what we have ride on its own at a certain point?
At 30 to 1 GSR would converting some silver to gold make sense (to preserve gains)?
Just wondering that part of the strategy.
Thx,
b_w
When the ratio goes back below 30:1 that would signal the end of the bull market is approaching and it’s time to sell both.
If we’re lucky, could drop below 20 . . .
I’m more interested in what do we buy when we sell our physical. By that time the dollar is trash, US and states are in debt to their eyeballs. Concerns about CBDC etc. Buying RE with super high property taxes? SM? The US and most of the world will be a mess. Don’t think anyone knows right now but something we will need to start dealing with in 3 or so years.
What figure are you waiting to buy in gold?
Goodmorning from Europe,
Yesterday gold spot (XAU/USD) closed for the first time since
the beginning of the year (10th. of January) below it’s rounding top 50 D SMA .
It looks that the 10 D SMA has already turned and is making
a chance to paint a death cross, so that the 10 DMA
will be crossing the 50 D SMA downwards.
This is a different setup vs. the last sideway churning cycle lows,
it looks much more bearish IMHO.
d.
Bonjour monsieur,
Im with you on this, its been looking weak and Im holding off to see if it drops further.
All those craziness in Russia and ME in the last couple of weeks and it didnt move up. Yesterdays spot close is giving a hint.
Bonjour Can,
Gold fell from Monday 13th of June , the day after the weekend the war started , to the lowest point yesterday with -4.67%.
It was clear to me that the market bought tech and the euro, but certainly not gold.
So in my eyes the smart money was taking profits during those war days !
Bonne journée à vous,
ps. also in the morning today the price of gold is having difficulty to make a backtesting of the breakout yesterday.
d.
Bonjour dirk,
I guess I am looking at it differently. What I see is that silver and gold dip below 30 on the 5RSI, with gold bouncing of the 50 SMA. Both are well in the oversold and looks like a good time to add back the LEAPS pending on Gary’s call. I don’t see the risk you highlighted above. Same goes for the GDX with it broke below the BB and entering the oversold on 5RSI.
P.
Bonjour Pulari,
That’s making a market !
ps. I am only looking at gold !
bien à vous,
Dirk.
@GoldTelegraph_
President Nixon “temporarily” suspended the gold standard in 1971 because the U.S. couldn’t cover foreign dollar claims.
Today,
The U.S. holds just over $800 billion in gold, which has NOT been audited, but owes over $7 trillion to foreign creditors.
Just think about this for a second.
Does the US have the gold ? What happened to the audit ?
Clarence, for some unknown reason, the audits never happen. Curious.
Is not the US Gold valued at $35/ oz or thereabouts?
a quick look at silver:
Day 29 of DC5. Silver tested the 35.50 support level again yesterday, this time breaking through the support before finding buyers. Silver again closed below the 10 dma. This morning, instead of following through to the upside, price continues to trend lower. The RSI(5) is also continues to decline further.
Putting these piece together, the DCL still looks to be in front of us, and the support at 35.50 does not seem strong. Steady as she goes, captain.
2Infinity,
Could that be a bull flag forming?
Last week, Gary pointed to the coil forming in silver. The coil broke to the upside (to new multi year highs) before rolling over to the “true” direction. Interesting to see these patterns play out.
2Infinity,
Do you know the significance/meaning of “true” direction?
( Especially as it relates to silver.)
Please explain.
Finally something to talk about with gold. It’s getting interesting.
Gold’s daily cycle is getting mature at 29 days, and looking for a DCL. After staying in the over bought area for this cycle, the RSI(5) has dropped below 30 for the first time since April. The very long trend line is starting to be within spitting distance and maybe tested soon.
An interesting note for this daily cycle is that it made a lower high from the ICH. As well, the war cycle (while still ongoing) was unable to push price to new highs.
A lower high is one parameter for a declining daily cycle as gold moves to an ICL. A failed daily cycle would be a drop below the previous DCL around 3120. Gold is looking for its DCL, how aggressively it will be dropping into a DCL may depend on when the DXY finds a bottom.
Good analysis- thanks.
new post
Tesla has given back all its robotaxi gains.
Ever notice that when TSLA is up, NVDA is down? And vice versa?
What’s with that? I think there is only so much money to manipulate the markets so they pull a shell game, something is always making a move and inspiring FOMO.
Interesting interview but sometimes a little meandering and hard to follow.
The bottom line seems to be that manipulation of volatility through technicals props up the market despite many macroeconomic trends that demand lower stock prices.
Eventually these trends will win after a flat- to down-ward summer. Bigger selloff late summer with closing at the end of the year around the April lows.
If the summer goes without panic, the cartel will have trouble covering its shorts as metals are likely to drift up as the market drifts down.
The cartel could bide its time and increase its short position (from already record highs) and then try to cover during a volatile late summer fall pullback but the risk in that would be tremendous.
I think more likely is continued badgering as we saw yesterday followed by capitulative short covering.
Remember, the banks have acted in concert in the past but if just one or two of them don’t want to lose billions again in silver as they did with gold, and chicken out then the others will likely not have the resources to continue the suppression and they will all bail quickly to avoid being the last one to cover at the highest price.