FWIW, if gold has begun the initial bubble phase of it’s bull market then not meeting ICL parameters is probably going to be the norm. We may have to alter our expectations during corrections.
I definitely think everyone should get into at least a half LEAP position today. This is one of those times where you have to pull the trigger now. Remember this is a breakout from a 13 year base. The bull will rescue long positions if we are early, but I’m starting to think we are right on time.
I will make the decision, probably Monday, on whether to add the last half or wait a little longer.
Comments (86)
1st
I’ll just do what I’m paying for and DWGS
Are the LEAPS on GLD or SLV?
Both unless you want to substitute GDX for GLD.
50/50 and GLD could be substituted with GDX.
Thanks Gary. And from my understanding, 5% of our portfolio in SLV and 5% in GDX? Basically, 10% right now and adding additional 10% when you give the signal ( potentially Monday)?
I read that in the morning comments from you. I am now 90% in cash and 10% allocated as you said. If I am wrong, tell me so I can adjust and add to my position.
80% should be in physical.
It is. I was talking about my portfolio percentage. I want to be sure I didnāt misunderstood and want to be in the position you recommended.
Hi Gary, I’m new to your service and relatively new to metals. Most of my capital is in IRAs. When you say physical, do you mean get an IRA with physical custody or ETFs like GLD, SLV, etc.?
If you have a way to buy physical gold and silver I think you should. It is your protection from overtrading and authoritarian gov.
Not Gary but the idea is to have 80% in physical, then the remaining 20% in your trading account. Of which 50% (so 10% overall) is in LEAPs
Thanks. I understood only like 5% each now from portfolio size, not talking about physical. Read one of his comments in the morning post, so I just wanted to clarify that part
Thanks Gary. Iām working on getting options approved, but until then would this be the time to take a partial position with GDX and SLV?
yes
Thanks Gary! Kind of wierd that GDX is lagging. Gold up $37 & GDX only up .15 cents. I guess it will eventually catch up? š¤·āāļø
This is why I suggested SLV and GLD/GDX.
Maybe you want to go with GLD.
I will buy GLD and more SLV when you make the call to buy the 2nd half.
What do you make of extreme underperformance in quality gold stocks – say Harmony, Nem etc – while gold keeps stabil/up?
The cartel likes to suppress the stocks.
Go with SLV and GLD if you are worried about GDX not catching up.
SLV is just hangin in there waiting for explosion
š. Fun. But It was a serious question. Rather looks like real players do not believe bottom is in, or what do you think?
Fred, I presume you are new to SMT. The miner suppression has been going on for many years, with a Bear Market in the shares from the Fall of 2011 until the current time. It became especially acute and obvious in March-May 2022 when GDX was taken down by almost 70% in a matter of weeks, while War in Europe raged and inflation surged up to over 10%. During that same period, the Cartel forces on COMEX shorted down the POG by $400 per ounce, into the Nov 2022 8 Year Cycle bottom. This was orchestrated by the US Government to punish the Bad Dog on the Volga, since Gold is an important part of their economy. They want to squelch all interest in the PM sector for the same reason.
Yes I am new and canāt find my way quite yet. Canāt find my comment when I said that, unfortunately correct, this would happen either. It was obvious when miners was extremely weak.
That doesnāt matter. Everyone does mistakes and no one can see the future.
But what now? Where are the stops? I am having certain trouble finding new posts.
Yes I am new and canāt find my way quite yet. Canāt find my comment when I said that, unfortunately correct, this would happen either. It was obvious when miners was extremely weak.
That doesnāt matter. Everyone does mistakes and no one can see the future.
But what now? Where are the stops? I am having certain trouble finding new posts.
Gary, thanks so much for answering all the questions raised in the comments on your previous post.
Here we go – emotionally ready or not we pull the plug
Agreed, Gary! IMO this has everything to do with things like every central bank in the world is buying gold, and nothing to do with the war cycle. If it were war, SPX would be caving in. We are headed for currency crises, debt implosions, and loss of confidence in…well, everything. And yes, too, normal parameters are out the window if we are headed towards a gold bubble.
That’s an “if” though. Today is the first day the RSI(5) on GLD is over 70 (overbought) so let’s see how it reacts. If normal we will start down Monday. If ICL is it we won’t.
DG
Do you have the same idea about Silver.
Silver is a little odd, as it is both a precious metal and has industrial uses. If things fall apart the industrial use will drop tremendously, but as a PM…?
I am long a lot of SLV ’26 LEAPS so I hope it follows along. But we do not need to worry about collapse or war so long as SPX is rallying like this.
Thank you ,DG.
Same hope , also in SLV ’26 Leaps and as you , I prefer lot’s of liquidity.
Living in Belgium (NATO in Brussels) , we are living with fear for war or a false flag!
Hello friendly Belgian fellow!
The only counter I would have to stocks not signaling war is that in early 2020 stocks were going up what seem like every day. However for those paying attention in alt. media it was clear there was a major issue in the east and it was spreading westward. Stocks partied on until one day they didn’t and then was down 30% in a few weeks. Not saying that’s going to happen but I am saying that stocks do not seem to be as forward looking as they were in the old days. There also seems to be a lot of crazy price action going on much like it was in 2021. Yes my bias is bearish on stocks which I’m sure you can tell by my posts.
Another explanation would be capital fleeing Europe and Asia and flowing into the US. Thje PM is too small for all of that so it goes into blue chip stocks and some residual in the rest of the market.
Don’t forget Bitcoin is getting its share.
Fair point which would explain the crypto space and dollar outperforming the euro.
I think if people were really fleeing due to war fears they’d not buy US stocks. They’d buy US Treasurys which keep going down. If the US debt is what is keeping people away from Treasurys, that’s another reason not to buy equities. Too, it would be the US that was at war, not just Europe. If Russia rolled into Poland… Probably not so good for US stocks.
I guess we will see. Glad that, as a technical trader, I do not need to know.
Only way Russia goes into Poland is if Nato does something stupid.
Reasonable people know Putin is not trying to invade Europe.
Agreed…he’s power hungry but not stupid.
NATO has already done a lot of provocative things to Russia like turning surrounding countries into NATO allies with bases and weapons, breaking treaties with Russia and supplying Ukrainian with missiles and training and giving them the okay to strike deep inside Russia………….looks like a NATO plan to me!
Thanks, Gary!
I love Bubbles!
Any recommendations for strike price on gld/slv Gary? January 2026 still?
Thanks Gary, Iām going back into metals positions as suggested. The possibility of a mild ICL is fantastic news!
Hey gary
Just a question for educational purposes…
What made you parameters made you change your mind that this “is different this time” ? Is it because we are starting the bubble bull phase?
Any parameters specifically you’re looking at that changed your mind??
Because B-waves shouldn’t complete weekly swings and recover the 10 WMA.
Hello Gary,
sorry my poor understanding…
how do define a weekly swing?
Burt could you elaborate on that a bit so I better understand?
Im looking at the GC chart and I see that the swing of this week was more than half of the initial high 10/30 to 11/15.
Thanks
You can find examples of a swing in the terminology link.
Thanks! Just forgot to change into the weekly frame. It can be that easy sometimes..
Thanks Gary , added to SLV , GLD and GDX LEAPS !
Gary , I hold 50% ibit and 50% bitx. Should I sell bitx and start deploying capital to pm leaps?
selling high in BTC and buying low in metals seems like the rotation of the year to me!
I like PM if we are starting a new intermediate cycle.
Well that didn’t last long. Orders in for GLD and GDX calls.
Troy
Just a shout out if anyone used to know John Kim from Tomii Academy?
I was on Johns Patraeon and Substack for a year. As you prob know he went silent at the beginning of August. I know he was in the hospital and I checked several times regularly if there were any updates. Just got one last week from someone who verified through a relative that he passed away. Young. very sad. I think he lived in Taiwan. Brilliant as I’m sure you know if you read his writings. I’m in touch with a guy now by the name of Ryan Ambler who is pulling down all of his data I’ll be interested to look through it.
OK, still in my PMs trio (NUGT, JNUG, AGQ,) from this morning’s PBs.
Going to need it to finish at the highs for today to feel comfortable to hold over the weekend.
If not, this will just be my usual day trade and look for my 4/5 PB on Monday morning to reenter.
I am personally just going to day trade PMs, until a have a confirmed ICL.
BTC made it to my full target price today as mentioned ($99.6K by this week.)
I am out/ sold my 20% ports. of BITX, but holding and will always hold (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, VET,) for the what ifs.
If I get my PB in BTC in 2 weeks on or about day 60ish will lock and load BITX.
GTTA,
Hon
Hon, what does 4/5 mean?
4 out of 5 days early morning PBs in PMs.
That would be the cartel doing their thing I assume hon?
VNOM oil stock is one indicator to watch for future oil price.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/g4gCCmKY/
Long VNOM,USO. They have diverged. Either oil catches up to VNOM, or VNOM drops lower. I think WTI will test $73. Oil has potential froma TA perspective.
VNOM wkly https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fxlv6aKZ/
In very strong, trending markets like we have seen in gold this year, where a cycle right translates due to the strength like we have seen in gold it is common for a drop to then get a strong high B wave bounce before another drop to only retest the low of the first drop. A flat consolidation. I am presently thinking that is what gold is doing.
This would also explain why silver is not getting a strong high, b wave, bounce because it has not had strong strength over the last several months.
Good point. This is also my thinking.
In the positions š for ā®ļø
Aloha honmag and all . I’m 100% cash since selling my BITX 2 days ago . I should have used the 99.6K target . To many things geopolitical and otherwise now for me to hold anything over the weekend . I may try some day trades next week , both gold miners and crypto . Patiently waiting to re-load BITX , as it could be one of the easiest and profitable trades of the year if bought right ( no interest in alt coins outside of maybe ETHE ) . Have a great weekend everyone .
+1, Me too!
Have a great weekend to all,
Hon
GDX is up almost 10% in just seven or eight trading days thatās nothing to sneeze at. Maybe itās just pausing a bit?
SLV not much at all! GLD nice 5% plus so GDX has lead so far!!!
…..and Rob Reiner checks himself into a mental institution.
Still own my Jan.2026 $28.00 calls did not take your bird in the hand earlier call. I wish I had then I was up 66% . Back up to 7% as of now will take you call to sell next time! Thanks Gary.
The weekly swings are great.
Volume today is pitiful.
When I hear Gary talk above about a tyrannical government, I can’t help but think we are living in historic times. Currency has been on a path down since 1913 causing big heartache to a massive amount of people.
Bitcoin, the newest currency, thought up by this guy Satoshi Nakamoto.
As the Chinese often say, may you live in interesting times.
Kudos to Gary and DG and all others on this board who give us the opportunity to make money even in those interesting times.
God bless America.
ghost, That’s it. Gold did that from the late Oct high into mid Nov at $2540.
Sure, that might be true. But if gold is moving higher from here there is no sense in suppressing miners. They are already too beaten down.
Fred, Tell it to the Judge. Seeing is believing.
FWIW, I still have Gold bottoming in Wave 4 of 5 On Nov12-13 at $2540 cash after a classical completed abc decline, as posted. Wave 5 target is $2950-3000. That may be optimistic, but it may get close.
EURUSD looks rather bloodbathy..
Anyone!!!! Want to make sure I heard correctly the second half weāre waiting till Monday correct????
That is my understanding.
It looks like it, yes.
Thats what Gary said
Does buy at the open mean market order?
You never do market orders on options unless you want to get taken to the cleaners.
If buying leaps it was mentioned earlier in thread one could wait a bit of time after open to let the spread on bid/ask settle a bit. Read through Gary’s comments last few threads.
In for a half
Me 2.
Have a great weekend all.
Alright.
Lock n load.
Ināsplit between SLV and GDX
Really went back and forth with this all day.
Fingers crossed.
Not anywhere the number last week but shorts were reduced in both Gold/Silver.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-november-22-2024